In early November, the bitcoin price held above the $76,000 mark — the average purchase price for short-term holders. The market maintained the level even after the hacker attack on Binance, when quotes dipped to a six-week low of $76,275.
The incident triggered forced liquidations of positions worth $1.58 billion. By the end of October, bitcoin had lost 7% of its value.
On-chain data points to a critical level
In late October, a large inflow of bitcoins to exchanges was recorded: net inflow reached approximately 11,500 BTC and 8,000 BTC on different days — a signal of selling pressure. Over the following days, a net outflow of nearly 40,000 BTC followed — one of the largest in 2026. However, such flows do not indicate accumulation of the asset.
During the hack, 18,270 BTC left Binance's hot wallet — in exchange statistics this is reflected as an outflow. Then, when withdrawals reopened on November 1, users withdrew another ~$2 billion in just three hours.
The attacker's coins are currently held across 19 addresses and have not moved. Their withdrawal to an exchange would create new pressure on the price.
The Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH MVRV) indicator provides a more precise signal, reflecting the difference between the current market price and the average purchase price of recent buyers. The metric currently stands at 1.02 — short-term investors have locked in roughly 2% profit. Their average purchase price is right around $76,000, near last week's minimum values.
A drop in STH MVRV below 1.0 in 2026 regularly triggered large-scale sell-off waves. Similar breakdowns in late January and May led the market to local lows in February and June. Conversely, the August rebound above this threshold triggered a powerful price rally all the way to $87,000. The indicator has recorded a consistent decline in peak values since late September — from 1.20 to 1.03.
Holding above $76,000 keeps new buyers in profit, whereas losing the level will force them to realize losses.
Bitcoin price forecast for November
On the weekly timeframe, bitcoin is testing the strength of the bullish trend support formed by the 21-week EMA at $76,874 and the 20-week SMA at $73,779. The Gaussian channel has remained red since March, confirming bear dominance. The price recently bounced off the channel's midline near $81,850. The weekly RSI stands at 52, indicating a neutral balance with a slight downward bias.
The daily chart adds reasons for caution. The Supertrend indicator turned red for the first time since May immediately after the Binance attack. In spring, a similar signal resulted in a 25% drop in quotes to $57,800. A repeat of a similar decline from a reversal point near $80,000 would take the price into the $60,000 area.
Bitcoin is currently resting on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level ($77,876). The daily RSI has dropped to 38, reflecting fading bullish momentum. The nearest resistance is $81,000–82,000, with a denser supply zone concentrated in the $85,000–87,000 range. In late September and early October, the price reversed downward from this barrier twice.
The key reference point for November remains $76,000. If bitcoin holds and reclaims $82,000, a renewed assault on $87,000 will follow. Losing support will shift the focus to the $73,000–74,000 range, where the daily 0.382 Fibonacci level, the 20-week SMA, and the weekly 0.236 Fibonacci level intersect. A close below would accelerate the decline toward the lower boundary of the Gaussian channel near $71,000. If the May negative scenario fully materializes, bitcoin risks dropping to $60,000. External events serve as an additional instability factor: spot bitcoin ETFs recorded an outflow of $643 million the day after the hack, and the US midterm elections on November 3 add further uncertainty.
Cryptalist analysis: The market is in a fragile equilibrium where technical support coincides with the psychologically significant average price of short-term holders. Stability above $76,000 could trigger a recovery, whereas a close below would provoke a cascade of loss-taking. Cryptalist's institutional view: volatility will remain elevated in the first half of November, and the outcome of the battle for the $76,000 level will set the trend direction through the end of the quarter.