OpenAI's funding round underwent a significant adjustment: the company's target valuation was lowered to $1.25 trillion, whereas the developer had initially aimed for $1.4 trillion. The reduction in the amount raised and the revision of multiples point to the emergence of a new investment regime in the artificial intelligence sector.
The company initially planned to raise $30 billion, but the target had to be reduced to $20 billion. The shrinking of the round reflects a broader trend: investor interest is shifting away from public equities in the AI sector toward the private market, where asset valuations are less exposed to stock market volatility.
Why OpenAI's funding volumes declined
Crossover funds that invest in both public and private structures are acutely sensitive to instability in equity markets. Many major players already hold a stake in OpenAI's equity, which complicates injecting new capital amid market turbulence. A number of participants reduced their check sizes even before the October 30 deadline — as a result, the first tranche will most likely fall short of the $20 billion mark.
The target valuation was cut around October 22 — before the decision to shrink the round itself. For comparison: in March, OpenAI raised $122 billion at a valuation of $852 billion, roughly six times below the company's current ambitions.
The largest investor in the round is expected to be a consortium from the UAE that includes the sovereign technology fund MGX. In addition, the company will receive an option to lease powerful computing centers in the region.
Weak private-market demand pushes AI companies toward IPOs
Declining interest in the private market is forcing AI companies to turn to public offerings more often. Previously, private markets were partially insulated from public-market trends, but that insulation is weakening.
In June, OpenAI filed a confidential IPO application, and in August its CFO said the company would go public in 2027. Anthropic publicly filed for a Nasdaq listing on October 26 — some investors want to see Anthropic's offering price first.
The broader picture reinforces caution: the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.86% on October 30, posting its worst monthly result in a year, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.82% for the day. Investors are waiting for proof that the massive data-center infrastructure spending by Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon will pay off. If private round volumes continue to fall, the IT giants will come under stock exchange pressure sooner than expected, and Anthropic's IPO price will be a test of the market's readiness to support trillion-dollar valuations for AI startups — the company is aiming for a capitalization of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion.
Cryptalist analysis: The adjustment to OpenAI's valuation reflects not a loss of the company's fundamental value, but a repricing of the risk premium by investors amid public-market volatility and growing skepticism about the returns on AI infrastructure. For the crypto sector, this is a signal: institutional capital is becoming more selective toward high-risk AI assets, which could strengthen the flow of funds into tokenized instruments and decentralized AI projects with more transparent economics.