A prolonged Bitcoin downturn may turn out to be not an isolated episode for the crypto market, but an early signal of the end of a cycle in which markets rapidly multiplied capital amid rising prices in the economy. In this scenario, copper and US equities could come under pressure following BTC, while holders of long-term US government bonds may come out ahead.
The logic is simple: if the forecast materializes, businesses and consumers will get cheaper raw materials, and investors will have to look for new, more reliable ways to preserve capital. According to analysts, it is Bitcoin that is the first to signal a regime change.
Why copper may follow Bitcoin's path
Since 2009, Bitcoin has set the tone for the risk-asset market, but in 2026 it has failed to stay in positive territory. Since the start of the year, BTC has fallen by roughly 12%, while the S&P 500 index, including dividends, has risen by the same 12%. Copper in 2026 is moving almost in sync with the stock index, so its downward reversal, according to analysts' logic, could drag equities down with it. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), a fund of long-term US government bonds, has lost about 3% over the same period, but in such a scenario these securities could rise in price.
Copper is closely linked to silver and reacts sensitively to the state of the economy and the stock market. Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, iron ore, nickel and Bitcoin in 2026 have already first surged sharply and then collapsed. If the precious metal repeats this trajectory, it could outweigh all other market factors.
By the end of the first quarter, silver had gained about 60% since the start of the year, and by November 3 it had gone about 30% into the red and returned to a price first reached back in 1980. A barrel of WTI oil cost more than $100 at the end of October — the first time such a price had been recorded since 2008. However, US natural gas, copper, grains and Bitcoin have fallen in price, and the "surge-then-crash" pattern is covering more and more markets.
What other market participants expect from Bitcoin
BTC's weakness is attributed to Fed policy, and further declines are expected until the regulator or banks begin expanding their balance sheets, that is, injecting new money into the system. Large players have already closed their cryptocurrency positions and are watching the market from the sidelines.
The $76,000 mark remains the nearest reference point: short-term holders on average bought BTC at exactly this price, and in early November the rate held above it even after the Binance hack. A drop below this level in 2026 has regularly triggered waves of selling, so a new move of the price below the mark could accelerate the decline.
Long-term optimists rely on the power-law rule: according to the model, Bitcoin rises in price as it matures, but growth rates slow over time. Even calculations that allow for a rate of around $1 million by 2033 imply a decline in annual returns — and this echoes the thesis of the end of the era of rapid enrichment.
Cryptalist analysis: The market is entering a phase where the correlation between risk assets intensifies, and Bitcoin acts as a leading indicator of a change in the liquidity regime. Until the Fed resumes expanding its balance sheet, pressure on BTC, copper and US equities will persist, while long Treasuries remain the key defensive instrument in the portfolio. The $76,000 level is the critical point on which the speed of further correction depends.