At the opening of trading on the Moscow Exchange on November 5, the ruble weakened against the yuan by 9.4 kopecks after oil lost more than 8% in a day. The weakening of the national currency threatens importers and buyers of foreign goods with rising prices, while exporters receive more rubles for their foreign currency earnings.
The Chinese currency rose to 12.283 rubles in the first minute of trading, coming in 10.14 kopecks above the current official rate. Pressure on the ruble intensified amid a sharp decline in oil prices: on Wednesday, November 4, Brent fell by 8.67% and WTI by 8.29%.
On Thursday morning the decline continued. By 9:05 Moscow time, January Brent futures on ICE Futures were down 0.46%, falling to $94.17 per barrel, while December WTI futures on NYMEX were down 0.99%, to $87.24.
Exchange rate forecast and risks for imports
In the coming weeks the ruble is expected to hold around 80 per $1, and high oil prices will support it until the end of the year. This scenario is a cause for concern among holders of ruble savings, although the direction of the exchange rate will also depend on Finance Ministry data and the course of the Russia–US–Ukraine negotiations.
The ruble is currently in a "comfort corridor" of 80–83 per dollar. Before the New Year holidays, import payments and demand for foreign currency rise seasonally, but export earnings are still coming in at the high oil price of $90–100 per barrel. In other words, the current drop in prices will not immediately affect exporters' revenues: earnings will remain roughly the same until the end of the year.
On Thursday the Finance Ministry will announce the volume of currency purchases for November, and it will be comparable to October's, with an effect on the exchange rate close to zero. Market participants are also awaiting Finance Ministry data on the formation and use of additional oil and gas budget revenues in October. In addition, investors' attention is riveted on the Russia–US–Ukraine negotiations: the meeting will take place on November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi behind closed doors and will be devoted to security issues and security guarantees.
What is behind the oil crash
Oil prices headed lower after the Democrats' victory in the US midterm congressional elections: investors expect that the new majority will reduce Washington's involvement in the conflict with Iran. Cheaper crude, which weighs on the ruble, on the contrary supported the crypto market: on November 4, the BTC rate returned above $80,000, while WTI fell to $93.54 per barrel — 12% below Friday's peak.
The scenario in which a Democrat-controlled Congress could limit military spending and push the White House toward de-escalation was described by analysts as early as October 26. Cheaper oil lowers inflation expectations, bond yields and the dollar exchange rate, which supports gold.
Goldman Sachs experts, by contrast, had earlier raised their Brent forecast for the end of 2026 to $105 per barrel from $90 due to the risks of supply disruptions from the Middle East. If production in the region recovers quickly, however, prices could fall to $60–70 — and then the ruble risks losing the support it is currently counting on.
Cryptalist analysis: The current dynamics of the ruble demonstrate its close correlation with oil prices, which makes the Russian currency vulnerable to external shocks. For the crypto market, the weakening of the ruble and the decline in oil create an ambiguous backdrop: on the one hand, this supports demand for bitcoin as a safe-haven asset; on the other, it amplifies macroeconomic uncertainty. Investors should closely monitor the negotiations in Abu Dhabi and Finance Ministry data, which could set the direction of capital flows in the coming weeks.