Trading veteran Peter Brandt believes that silver is approaching its final low, and the subsequent recovery will be gradual rather than rapid. His technical analysis relies on the classic "falling wedge" pattern, which is forming on both the weekly and daily charts.
On Thursday, silver traded at $53.18 per ounce, gaining 1.76% for the day. The metal is still far from its January high of $121.74 — the current price is 56% below that level.
Peter Brandt's Forecast
On both timeframes, Brandt's chart shows a falling wedge — a pattern in which the price moves between two converging downward lines. Such a pattern typically signals weakening selling pressure.
According to Brandt's calculations, the final low within the wedge should form slightly below the 50-year support for silver. On the charts, this level runs around $56 on Comex futures, and the price has already broken through this threshold.
The lower boundary of the wedge runs at $48 — the trader marked a red arrow there. So far, silver has not yet touched this line. Brandt admitted that he had previously hoped for prices to move toward $40, but now he does not expect this.
He bases his position on an October 30 publication in which he called the sell-off a "cleansing" of buyers who held positions above $90–100. According to him, this is exactly how lows are typically formed.
An important nuance lies in how such wedges play out. The trader references Richard Schabacker, Robert Edwards, and John Magee — the authors of classic books on chart patterns.
"Remember: after breaking out of a falling wedge, the price usually continues to rise gradually rather than shooting straight up (Schabacker, Edwards/Magee)," he notes.
Nevertheless, Brandt expects significant silver price growth over a horizon of several years.
Medium-Term Silver Growth and the Fed Factor
Further strengthening of silver depends on the dollar's trajectory and the next move by the US Federal Reserve. The latest leg of growth began after the Democrats gained control of both chambers of Congress. After that, the US Dollar Index dropped to a monthly low of 101.099.
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds declined to 4.89% that day. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated metals more affordable for foreign buyers.
Peter Schiff, founder of SchiffGold, believes that silver will never fall below $50 again. However, interest rate expectations point in the opposite direction: the CME FedWatch tool recorded an 82% probability of a rate hike by the regulator in December.
A rate hike increases the cost of holding precious metals that do not generate interest income. A new test for market participants will be Friday's US labor market report. Strong data could reinforce expectations of tight policy and send the precious metal toward the lower boundary of the pattern.
Cryptalist Analysis: The falling wedge configuration in silver does indeed indicate a fading bearish momentum, but the outcome depends on a macroeconomic trigger — the December Fed decision and the employment report. Institutional investors should consider the $48–56 zone as key for building a medium-term position, since a break below the lower boundary of the wedge would cancel the gradual recovery scenario.