The Bitcoin Cycle Extremes Index has dropped to 15.8%. This value is far from the levels that typically accompany major market reversals — which means investors buying BTC around $80,000 should not yet expect the correction to be over.
There is also an encouraging signal for coin holders: market tension has noticeably eased, and the frenzy characteristic of previous cycle peaks is absent right now. However, low indicator values alone do not prove that sellers have exhausted their strength. This means that before a sustained rally, the price could go down once more or get stuck in a narrow range for a long time.
No bottom signal on cycle indicators yet
The 30-day average of the Cycle Extremes Index has fallen to 15.8%. The index is calculated based on the price drawdown from the all-time high, volatility, and time since the halving. This level corresponds to a zone of moderate pressure. The decline of the BTC price from its peak is significant, yet the index is still far from the levels of an active, let alone extreme, phase.
To assess the data, the readings were compared with past cycles. In 2021, the index rose sharply as the BTC price approached its peak and volatility intensified, and similar spikes occurred during the 2024–2025 rally. Now the heat of the cycle has noticeably weakened, yet the risk of a decline remains.
The same conclusion follows from the data of the second indicator — the Cycle Extreme Oscillator. Its 30-day average is near the lower boundary of the historical range and noticeably below the 1.0 threshold. In the past, the indicator rose above this mark during strong market moves, for example in early 2021 and several times during the last major rally, but nothing similar is visible on the chart right now.
The Bitcoin market is undergoing a sluggish correction, and there is no confirmed cycle bottom yet. The main signal will be a sustained rise of the extremes index toward the active phase together with a recovery of the oscillator. Until then, the calm in the market should not be mistaken for a reversal.
Key BTC levels in early November
The risk of a new wave of decline is also visible in the November forecast: the BTC price is holding above $76,000 — the average entry price of short-term holders — but their profit by the STH MVRV metric is only about 2%. A break below this mark threatens a drop to $60,000, while a return above $82,000 will open the way for the price to $87,000.
The next milestone lies higher: quotes have fallen to the level at which traders who entered the market one to three months ago bought coins on average — just below $80,000. If the mark holds, these buyers will remain without losses, and if it breaks, they may start selling on rallies — whether the correction ends depends on this.
Cryptalist analysis: The combination of cycle indicators points to a phase of moderate pressure rather than seller capitulation, which has historically been characteristic of intermediate rather than final stages of a correction. The key trigger for institutional investors will be a synchronous reversal of the extremes index and the oscillator upward, while a break of the $76,000–$80,000 zone could strengthen the downward momentum.