From November 9 to December 4, the Ministry of Finance will allocate 312.63 billion rubles to purchase foreign currency and gold under the budget rule, and the government has allowed the ministry to borrow up to 1 trillion rubles above the 2026 plan. Daily purchases create additional demand for currency and could weaken the ruble, which is disadvantageous for importers and those planning expenses abroad.
For OFZ holders, the news is ambiguous: additional borrowing will increase the supply of bonds. The ministry will likely have to offer investors higher yields. This is beneficial for buyers of new issues, while holders of already purchased securities face a decline in their market price.
How much currency the Ministry of Finance will buy and borrow on the market
The Russian Ministry of Finance will allocate 312.63 billion rubles to purchase foreign currency and gold under the budget rule. The operations will take place from November 9 to December 4, and the daily purchase volume will be equivalent to 15.6 billion rubles.
At the same time, the government has allowed the ministry to borrow up to 1 trillion rubles on the domestic market above the level set for 2026. The order was signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
According to the document dated November 3, the ministry has the right to exceed the upper limit of the state domestic debt and the domestic borrowing program for 2026. The main instrument for such borrowing is federal loan bonds (OFZ).
The Cabinet also approved the OFZ placement limit for 2026 at up to 6.47 trillion rubles. Over three quarters, the ministry raised 4.47 trillion rubles, and another 2.45 trillion rubles was expected in the fourth, that is, a total of 450 billion rubles above the limit, and the Ministry of Finance had previously allowed for growth in borrowing in the second half of the year.
How the gold market is behaving
The Ministry of Finance's purchases fit into a global trend: central banks acquired 321 tons of gold in Q3 2026, 42% more than a year earlier. State demand supports the metal's price, although private buyers are increasingly rarely purchasing bars, coins, and jewelry.
Speculators, by contrast, have been cutting positions for the fifth consecutive week and since September 22 have shed $19.5 billion worth of gold. Analysts believe that the main sources of demand for the metal remain, so the price decline gives long-term investors a chance to buy cheaper.
The Ministry of Finance will have to buy gold amid a new price increase: on November 4, the metal's price returned above $4,000 per ounce after the US midterm elections. Market participants expect that party confrontation in Congress will restrain growth in government spending, which weakens the dollar and plays into gold's hands.
Cryptalist analysis: Simultaneous currency purchases and large-scale borrowing create double pressure on the Russian debt and currency markets: the ruble receives a pro-inflationary impulse, and the OFZ yield curve faces the risk of an upward shift. For institutional investors, this is a signal to reconsider portfolio duration and hedge currency risk, while the global gold market retains structural support from central banks.