The Nasdaq Composite index has completely lost the momentum it gained after the midterm elections, and this poses a direct threat to bitcoin. According to crypto analyst Ben Cowen, a new wave of selling could drag BTC down to the $58,000 mark.
This level is located in close proximity to bitcoin's June low — its lowest value of 2026. A return of the price to this zone would effectively wipe out all of the asset's recent gains and bring the market back to its starting point.
Historical parallel with 2018
Cowen draws a direct analogy with 2018, when the S&P 500 rose 2.1% immediately after the midterm elections. However, three factors subsequently reversed the market and triggered a December decline in quotations.
The first trigger was a statement by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in October 2018 that interest rates were far from the neutral level. Those words led to the worst month for the S&P 500 since 2011. Today, markets continue to price in two additional rate hikes despite the correction in technology stocks.
The second factor was the rise in costs due to tariffs, which Caterpillar, 3M and Ford complained about. A similar mechanism is at work now: tariffs amplify inflation and force the Fed to maintain a tight monetary policy.
The third cause was the reversal of the technology sector in late 2018 under pressure from regulators targeting large platforms. Today, this role is played by concerns related to the development of artificial intelligence.
On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed roughly 1,800 points lower, and the Nasdaq entered correction territory — a decline of more than 10% from its high.
Can bitcoin avoid following Nasdaq's path
Bitcoin has already repeatedly followed large technology stocks. The previous Big Tech selloff brought it to the $62,000 mark in June. Cowen's logic is simple: if the Nasdaq can return to its summer lows, then bitcoin can do the same.
Morgan Stanley analyst Mike Wilson takes the opposite view, regarding any mid-cycle correction as a buying opportunity. However, such logic stops working if the Fed softens its rhetoric — Powell shifted to a dovish tone in late November 2018.
BlackRock Managing Director Jeffrey Rosenberg notes that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh links tightening financial conditions to the development of AI. Last week, the regulator kept the rate at 3.75–4%.
Cryptalist analysis: Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq remains the determining factor in short-term dynamics, and the current technical picture points to an elevated risk of retesting the June lows around $58,000. The key trigger will be the Fed's rhetoric: maintaining a tight course will increase pressure on risk assets, while signals of easing could quickly reverse the negative scenario. Institutional investors will likely be closely watching the $62,000 level as the nearest line of support.