Kalshi prediction platform CEO Tarek Mansour has publicly endorsed a ban on insider trading for members of the U.S. Congress and administration officials. The statement came amid record betting volumes on the midterm elections and growing regulatory pressure on the event contracts market.
Mansour emphasized that if a market participant gains an exclusive advantage and privilege in a competition, the competition itself becomes a fiction. He called for strict rules prohibiting congressmen, administration officials, and other involved parties from trading on markets whose outcomes they are able to influence.
Record Volumes and Growing Regulatory Scrutiny
The Senate already banned such trades for its members and staff in April. Meanwhile, on Kalshi alone, betting volume on the midterm elections reached about $1.3 billion by the start of the week, and combined bets on Kalshi and its competitor Polymarket reached nearly $1.9 billion.
Kalshi operates under the supervision of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and pays out rewards for correct forecast outcomes. Mansour noted that the platform has monitored insider trading cases since its founding in 2018. As an example, he cited former Congressman George Santos, whom the CFTC ordered to pay about $35,000 for betting against himself.
The platform also launched an investigation into bets on the appointment of Trump's press secretary made before the official announcement. In the fall, a similar precedent caused widespread resonance in the industry.
Legislative Initiatives Multiply
Senator Jeff Merkley (Democrat, Oregon) and Congressman Jamie Raskin (Democrat, Maryland) introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act, which provides for a complete ban on contracts on the outcome of elections, sporting events, military operations, and most government decisions. Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut also called for banning betting on elections, and Representative Blake Moore of Utah introduced a bipartisan bill regulating trades on voting outcomes.
The final decision by Congress will determine whether U.S.-licensed platforms can continue to list election contracts. The future of Kalshi also depends on this — the company closed a $1 billion funding round at a $40 billion valuation at the end of October.
Cryptalist Analysis: Public support for the insider trading ban is a strategic move by Kalshi aimed at preserving its license and reputation amid intensifying legislative pressure. The event contracts market stands on the threshold of institutional legitimization, and the outcome of the battle over election betting will determine whether this segment becomes a full-fledged financial instrument or remains a niche product with high regulatory risk.