While the market is mesmerized by the deflating artificial intelligence bubble, few are paying attention to the overheating in bitcoin itself. Economist and staunch cryptocurrency skeptic Peter Schiff has called for selling BTC right now, claiming that the first cryptocurrency is trading roughly 40% below its all-time high.
According to Schiff, the key difference between the two "bubbles" is obvious: artificial intelligence is backed by real productive value, whereas bitcoin has none. The economist reinforced his argument with a reference to the US midterm elections, warning that the "air will come out" of the asset in the near future. His advice to investors is extremely straightforward — exit the position before it's too late.
Skeptics expect a new crash
Schiff's sentiment is shared not only by consistent cryptocurrency opponents. Trader Ash Crypto noted that bitcoin barely starts to rise before something immediately knocks it down. Among the negative factors, he listed the US-Iran war, the stock market crash, a possible Fed rate hike, and large-scale hacks on the crypto market.
Traders see signs of a bottom
Far from everyone agrees with the inevitability of a crash. Trader Sminston With, who works with a power law model, believes the market is already at the bottom. The model is based on a predictable growth curve of bitcoin's price, the lower part of which forms a support zone known as the "rainbow." The coin briefly dipped below this zone but returned at a rate of around $75,675.
The analyst noted an important detail: in August, the $75,000 level was at the 5th percentile of the model, and now it has dropped to the 4th. This means that the lower boundary of the curve is creeping upward even with sideways price movement. Such a picture is typical of exiting a bear market — a long one, with many false moves, after which momentum gains strength. For the trader, the conclusion is simple: current fluctuations are a normal part of the reversal, not a signal to leave the market.
Trader Killa stated that the bear market is already over. Many expect a new low in the fourth quarter, since historically bitcoin has most often reached its bottom during this time. However, Killa reminded that in each cycle the coin formed three major lows, and the calendar year has nothing to do with it. In 2023, the second and third bottoms formed almost next to each other through false breakouts of levels. Now the chart is repeating that picture almost one-to-one. From a market structure standpoint, the correctional bottom has already been passed, and the seasonal one never appeared — the decline of recent weeks is explained by traditional markets falling, with cryptocurrencies following them by inertia.
Cryptalist analysis: The market has found itself at a classic point of divergence between fundamental skepticism and technical optimism. Schiff's rhetoric remains predictably negative and does not account for shifts in institutional demand, while the power law model points to the formation of a stable base. For the institutional investor, the key signal will not be public rhetoric, but the behavior of the lower boundary of the "rainbow" and the correlation with traditional markets in the fourth quarter.