Spending on data center construction in the US has reached a record level, but rapid growth may face serious obstacles due to political decisions in Washington. UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti warns that a Democratic victory in the midterm elections could slow the development of infrastructure for artificial intelligence.
The pace of data center construction has risen to $96.5 billion per year — 90% more than a year earlier. At the same time, the published calculations take into account only current facilities, whereas the dynamics of new groundbreakings more accurately reflect future market trends.
The number of new data center construction starts declined on the eve of vote counting
In September, $9.4 billion in starts were recorded — less than half of the record $25.8 billion in August. One month does not form a long-term trend, and the final figures are always heavily influenced by the largest infrastructure projects. Nevertheless, analysts expect that the total volume of new projects in 2026 will exceed $180 billion.
Specialists are tracking planned construction worth $74.8 billion. Work at these sites is due to begin within the next six months. Fulfillment of the announced plans is critically important for the entire economy, since the rest of the country's construction sector is showing a sharp decline.
Data center construction is supporting a weakening construction market
Total US construction spending in September fell by 1.9% to $2.19 trillion on an annualized basis — the sharpest monthly decline since April 2020. Data center costs in the same month rose by 8.6%. Growth has continued for the fourth consecutive month — up more than 60% relative to last year.
"Since the beginning of 2024, data center construction spending has nearly quadrupled," analysts note.
Office construction fell by 8% compared with last year — to $46 billion, close to the lowest level since January 2016. The gap between this segment and data centers under construction has widened to a record $50.5 billion. Therefore, a correction in the data center segment will lead to a decline in all industry investment, since the market currently relies on only one direction.
Among the risk factors, Ermotti highlighted the US midterm elections. After them, Democrats gained control of Congress, and candidates advocating stronger oversight of AI development and data center construction won in key districts.
"Political changes in the US could lead to a slowdown in infrastructure projects," Ermotti said.
These words came several days after a $2.3 trillion Nasdaq selloff, which is partly linked to fears of tighter AI regulation. At the same time, Ermotti considers artificial intelligence a growth driver in the medium and long term, although he points to risks of volatility in the near term.
October data, including the census information published on December 1, do not yet reflect the election results. The November figures — the first full month after the vote — will show whether developers have begun to cut investment.
Cryptalist analysis: The concentration of the US construction market around data centers creates a systemic vulnerability: any political or regulatory correction in this segment could trigger a chain reaction in related industries. For the crypto industry, this is a signal that infrastructure risks and the cost of computing power will remain a key volatility factor in the mining and AI integration segment. Investors should closely monitor November statistics — they will become the first indicator of the real impact of political changes on the industry's capital expenditures.