Bitcoin (BTC) closed the week ending November 8 at $74,968 — 0.7% below its 50-week moving average. The seven-week streak of closes above this line, with a recovery above which the end of the bear market had been associated, has been broken.
Now the key reference point for bitcoin holders becomes the weekly close of June 28 — $59,517, the lowest value of the current cycle. Twice before, a similar breakdown did not lead to a new bear market low. Currently, bitcoin has less cushion above this level than before.
Bitcoin has fallen below its 50-week moving average
The 50-week moving average is the arithmetic mean of the last 50 weekly bitcoin closes. Bitcoin recovered above this mark on September 20, 12 weeks after the June low.
From that close at $81,195, bitcoin held above the average for 7 consecutive weeks. The November 8 close came in 7.7% below this level, but still 26% above the June low.
At the time of publication, bitcoin is trading at $75,031. Over the past day, the coin has dropped 0.86% — roughly 0.6% below the moving average.
The weekly close fell on the weekend, when mass forced liquidations swept the crypto market. Longs were hit the hardest. A return above the 50-week average has already happened after a bottom was set, though only twice in history.
What happened in past cycles
Since 2012, there have been five instances of bitcoin recovering above the average after a bear market day, including the September recovery. Of the four previous ones, in two cases — in 2015 and 2023 — BTC held its position all the way to a new all-time high. In the other two episodes, prices fell again, but the cycle low held.
The first case occurred in 2011–2012: bitcoin broke above the line in January 2012 and closed 18% above it; three weeks later the price dropped back and stayed below for another 20 weeks; the lowest close at $4.39 was 99% above the 2011 bottom; the market reclaimed its previous record in February 2013.
The second episode occurred in 2019–2020: in May 2019, the coin settled above the line with a 5.7% cushion and held for 29 weeks; then prices broke below five times, with the sharpest decline coinciding with the March 2020 crash; the lowest close at $5,359 exceeded the 2018 low by 68%; bitcoin reclaimed its peak values in December 2020. In both cases, the cryptocurrency set a new all-time high within two years of reclaiming the line.
Why bitcoin looks weaker now
In September, when it broke above the line, bitcoin closed 36% above the June low. In 2019, the difference was 79%, and in 2012 — 223%. Moreover, the current correction has been deeper than the 2020 events: the November 8 result is 7.7% below the recovery point, whereas in 2020 the drawdown was limited to 6.5%.
In 2012, the test of the line was accompanied by a 38.1% drop from the recovery level. A similar pullback from $81,195 would take the price to $50,260 — below the June low. At the same time, a margin of safety does not guarantee forecast accuracy: in 2012, an 18% gap did not hold the line, while in 2015 a distance of 8% was enough.
The chart also marks two more cases of closes above the average — in December 2021 and March 2022. Both moments preceded the formation of a bottom, after which the price set new lows. For this reason, the calculations take into account only those cases that occurred after a bottom was passed. There is too little data for bold conclusions.
"The sample is only 5 re-breakouts, and the 'market bottom' can only be determined in hindsight. For 2026, this means holding the $59,517 level," the analysis emphasizes.
What bitcoin needs to confirm a bottom
The first test will be the nearest weekly close relative to the 50-week moving average, which currently runs at $75,488. Below that is the 200-week moving average — $67,746. The June low at $59,517 is the threshold that must hold for the bottom scenario to remain intact. On the chart covering 4 completed bear markets, no close after a recovery above the low has fallen below this mark.
Cryptalist analysis: Losing the 50-week average with a thin cushion above the June low shifts the market into a heightened volatility regime, where holding the $59,000–$67,700 zone becomes decisive. The historical sample of five breakouts is too small for a statistically reliable signal, so institutional investors would be wise to interpret the current dynamics as a test of demand rather than a confirmed trend reversal.