US stock markets open on November 9 for the first time after Nvidia chief Jensen Huang admitted to a relationship with a woman whom US intelligence agencies suspect of spying for China. The scandal coincided with a week of key inflation data: hot statistics threaten investors with a new wave of selling in stocks and bitcoin (BTC), while soft figures could give the market a chance to rebound.
The coming trading sessions promise to be extremely dramatic for the markets. Traders are already pricing in a 79% probability of a Fed rate hike in December — such a move will make credit more expensive for US businesses and citizens. The S&P 500 index is holding around 7,380 points after last week's plunge, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds is 4.86%, and oil is trading near $89 per barrel amid hopes for a deal with Iran.
What is known about the scandal and what data will be released this week
Huang admitted in a memo sent to employees on Sunday, November 8: "I was unfaithful to my wife. There is no excuse for what I did." The reference is to Alice Huang — the former head of Megaspeed, a Singapore-based data center operator that was planning to purchase $2 billion worth of Nvidia AI chips. According to US intelligence, China's Ministry of State Security recruited the woman to get close to the company's chief. Nvidia's board of directors has launched an independent investigation, and members of Congress are also demanding explanations.
The situation is doubly dangerous for shareholders: Nvidia is the world's most valuable company, and it will present its quarterly report as early as November 17. The stock holds the largest weight in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, so its performance will affect the index funds in which the savings of millions of private investors are invested. The scandal is only the beginning of a packed week.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the main inflation gauge, will be released on Tuesday, November 10. Forecasts point to inflation accelerating to 3.9% from 3.7%, and the bond market will close on November 11 in observance of Veterans Day, although stock exchanges will continue operating. The number of initial jobless claims on Thursday is forecast to rise to 194,000 after 189,000 a week earlier. The US Treasury will conduct another buyback of government debt the same day: the department is preparing such operations worth up to $95 billion in the coming quarter.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for October will be released on Friday, November 13: economists expect a 0.4% increase after a 1.3% jump in September, while the annual figure has already reached 6.3% — the highest since December 2022. Producers are passing costs on to buyers, so hot statistics could further raise the odds of Fed policy tightening. One bad number could be enough to restart the sell-off.
Nasdaq crash, panic in Seoul and a strong labor market
Apple shares hit a record $354.50 on November 4, gaining 5.31% for the day — the company's best session in a year and a half. Already on November 5, Apple stock played the role of a defensive asset and lost only about 1.5%, while the Nasdaq plunged 5.52%. The drop was the index's worst since April 2025: the sell-off was led by chipmakers amid doubts about the pace of AI data center construction in the US. The blow hit the same sector as the Nvidia scandal.
The wave of selling on November 6 reached Seoul: the KOSPI index plunged more than 8% shortly after the open and fell below 5,000 points for the first time since February. The Korean exchange automatically halted trading for 20 minutes at 03:03 Moscow time — the mechanism has been triggered for the 11th time in 2026, and shares of AI server memory makers SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics fell 11.71% and 9.98%, respectively.
The US jobs report released the same day added pressure: in October the economy created 165,000 jobs — nearly three times the forecast. A strong labor market unties the Fed's hands for policy tightening: gold fell to about $4,032 per ounce within minutes, BTC also moved lower, and the probability of a December rate hike rose to 77% (now 79%).
Cryptalist analysis: The market is entering a phase where Nvidia's corporate risk overlaps with the macroeconomic risk of inflation, and both factors hit the same high-tech segment. Institutional investors will assess not so much the scandal itself as management's ability to maintain operational stability until the November 17 report. For bitcoin, the key trigger remains CPI statistics: soft data could restore risk appetite, while hot figures will strengthen BTC's correlation with a falling Nasdaq.