For the first time in two months, Bitcoin closed a weekly candle below the 50-week moving average — a key indicator that the price had not broken below over the past year. The technical picture has deteriorated sharply, yet large holders are in no hurry to lock in losses.
What the chart signals
A break below the 50-week MA is traditionally perceived by the market as the boundary between a healthy bull trend and a prolonged correction. Analysts are considering two scenarios:
- Bullish rebound: buyers push the price back above the 50-week average as early as this week. In this case, the breakdown will prove to be false — a classic trap in which large players deliberately push prices down to shake out small investors and buy their coins cheaper.
- Continued decline: the price consolidates below the level again, opening the way for a move toward $60,000.
An additional alarm signal comes from the long-to-short ratio — bets on gains versus bets on declines. It has reached extreme values. Historically, the three previous similar episodes coincided with a local market bottom, after which the price reversed upward. However, before reversing, Bitcoin typically goes through a period of strong volatility.
Macro backdrop weighs on risk assets
Bitcoin's weakness is explained by problems in the stock market. Throughout 2026, the thesis has persisted that in the fourth quarter digital assets may fall following equities. A similar dynamic was observed in late 2014, 2018, and 2022 — each time Bitcoin followed the correction in traditional markets in sync.
Long-term investors' stance
Prominent Bitcoin supporters see no cause for panic. Investor and head of Professional Capital Management Anthony Pompliano emphasizes: Bitcoin will continue to rise as long as governments print money. The more dollars are issued, the lower their value, while Bitcoin's supply is strictly limited — its price in dollars is bound to rise.
Bitcoin investor Fred Krueger adds that only newcomers can doubt the asset's returns. Those who have held coins for six years or longer have weathered such drawdowns more than once and ultimately reaped significant profits.
The coming week will be decisive: a return above the 50-week average will remove some of the market's fears, while another close below the level will make a decline more likely.
Cryptalist analysis: The break below the 50-week MA is a significant but not fatal signal: it reflects the fragility of the short-term trend against the backdrop of macroeconomic pressure, not a structural reversal of the cycle. The extreme long-to-short ratio has historically preceded local reversals, which leaves room for a rebound. Cryptalist's institutional view: the key trigger remains where the price settles relative to the 50-week average at the weekly close — this level will determine the balance of power between bulls and bears in the fourth quarter.