Data center construction in the US hit an all-time high in September, pushing the office segment to an unprecedented $50.5 billion. For AI infrastructure suppliers and their investors, such demand promises a steady stream of orders, but the country's economy is becoming dangerously dependent: all other construction in the country is shrinking.
Data centers overtook offices by a record $50.5 billion
According to US Census Bureau data, spending on data center construction reached $96.5 billion on an annualized basis in September. That is 90% more than a year earlier and the strongest growth in the past decade.
Year-over-year growth has exceeded 60% for the fourth consecutive month. Spending on building such facilities has nearly quadrupled since the start of 2024.
In the office segment, the picture is the opposite. Spending on conventional offices fell 8% over the year to $46 billion, approaching the lowest level since January 2016.
Total US construction spending meanwhile fell 1.9% for the month — the sharpest decline since April 2020. AI infrastructure is already reshaping the country's economy, and for investors this picture may be an alarming signal: the industry rests on a single direction, so a pause in AI projects could hit it entirely.
The data center boom has run into politics
Congress could be the first obstacle: on November 6, Senator Bernie Sanders demanded a moratorium on launching new data centers until lawmakers adopt rules on electricity pricing, environmental protection, and local resident consent. The initiative's chances grew after the Democrats' election victory — against this backdrop, the Nasdaq index fell 6.36%, and Nvidia shares dropped 9%.
UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti warned of similar risks on November 9: according to him, political changes in the US could slow infrastructure projects. In the long term, the banker still sees AI as a source of growth, but in the near term he allows for strong market fluctuations.
Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal expressed the opposite view back in early October, calling fears that data centers will take electricity and water away from people mistaken. In his opinion, AI not only consumes resources but also creates new wealth, so it is more profitable to own the infrastructure of this economy — layer-1 blockchains (L1).
Cryptalist analysis: The concentration of construction capital in a single segment creates the classic risk of a one-directional market: if AI capex slows, the downturn will hit the entire supply chain and related industries. For the crypto market, this is an ambiguous signal — political pressure on data centers could strengthen the case for decentralized computing and L1 infrastructure, but at the same time, rising volatility in tech stocks will also be transmitted to digital assets.