Bitcoin enters the new trading week from a weakened position, and three macro events in the US could determine how deep the current correction will go. On Tuesday the market will receive consumer inflation data, on Thursday reports from AI chip manufacturers, and on Friday the producer price index.
At the time of this analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $74,322, which is 1.85% below the level of 24 hours ago. Accelerating inflation could strengthen expectations of a Fed rate hike in December — and this prospect has already put pressure on the asset's price previously.
Inflation report: a signal for tightening in December?
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish October consumer price index (CPI) data on Tuesday at 8:30 Eastern Time. Analysts expect annual inflation to rise to 3.9% from 3.7% in September — the indicator has remained above 3% since March.
The release comes amid tightening Fed policy: in September the regulator raised the rate for the first time in three years, and on October 28 kept the range unchanged at 3.75–4.00%. A strong jobs report on Friday increased the likelihood of a December hike: according to CME FedWatch, the odds of a quarter-point rate increase on December 9 are estimated at 80.5% versus 70.7% a week earlier.
If CPI comes in at 3.9% or higher, the Fed will have no compelling reason to abandon tight policy. However, rates are only part of the pressure on Bitcoin: tech stocks have also contributed to the cryptocurrency's decline, and key earnings reports from artificial intelligence companies are due later this week.
Can Cisco and Applied Materials reports ease AI spending concerns
The Nasdaq Composite index fell into correction territory on November 5 — the decline since the start of the month amounted to 5.52% amid a drop in microchip manufacturers' shares.
Cloud provider CoreWeave will report first on Tuesday after the market close; options traders are pricing in a share price swing of up to 20.7% after the release. Cisco will publish its first-quarter fiscal year report on November 12, forecasting quarterly revenue in the range of $18–18.2 billion. Applied Materials will report results the same day, expecting quarterly revenue of $10.25 billion with a margin of $500 million.
Weak guidance from any of these companies could revive fears related to cuts in AI spending — these were among the reasons for last week's decline.
Producer indicators: will they confirm the CPI data
The October producer price index (PPI) will be released on Friday, November 13, at 8:30 Eastern Time. Economists expect the indicator to remain virtually unchanged compared to September, when PPI showed the largest monthly increase since March 2022 — wholesale gasoline prices rose by 20.3%.
After the release of "hot" inflation data in September and October, Bitcoin declined both times. In October the drop was most notable: annual inflation rose to 3.7%, exceeding expectations, and the BTC price fell to $80,000, losing 3.3% in a day.
This week Bitcoin starts from a weaker position. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $1.28 billion last week, and mass forced selling on Sunday liquidated positions worth $855.69 million. The coin is trading below $75,700 — the average purchase price of the asset by new investors. To relieve some of the pressure, Bitcoin needs to return above this level, and the nearest support is located at $70,000.
Calmer inflation data could change the situation: in July a "cool" report allowed Bitcoin to rise by about 3%, to $64,500. The Fed meeting will take place on December 8–9, when new rate forecasts will also be published.
Cryptalist analysis: The market is in a phase of heightened sensitivity to macro data, where every inflation surprise translates into an immediate repricing of risks. The combination of ETF outflows, a weak technical structure, and proximity to key support at $70,000 creates an asymmetric risk profile: a positive CPI surprise could trigger a short-term rebound, while confirmation of sustained inflation above 3.9% will increase pressure on risk assets. Cryptalist's institutional view: volatility will remain elevated until the Fed meeting on December 9, and Bitcoin's ability to hold above $70,000 will become the key indicator of the current cycle's resilience.