The artificial intelligence sector is in limbo: a genuine recovery in AI company valuations is only possible after Anthropic's initial public offering. This thesis was central to Jim Cramer's assessment voiced earlier this week — and it instantly reverberated across crypto markets.
Crypto traders were the first to react to the signal. On Hyperliquid — a decentralized derivatives exchange — perpetual futures on Anthropic ahead of the IPO fell nearly 7%. The market took the uncertainty surrounding the listing as a reason to reassess risks.
Anthropic — the last link in the AI chain
Cramer's logic is built on the structure of the industry: the fate of the sector depends on who pays for AI development. Chipmakers and data center operators earn on investments, but their success is directly tied to the ability of AI developers to generate sufficient revenue.
"Anthropic matters because it is one of the few companies at the very end of the chain — after all the investment in AI data centers."
The SpaceX example is telling: according to Anthropic's IPO prospectus, its monthly obligations for computing through SpaceX grew from $1.25 billion to more than $3 billion. These contracts allow SpaceX to purchase Nvidia chips. If the deal with Anthropic falls through, SpaceX may not have enough funds to fulfill it — and forecasts for computing power suppliers will head lower.
Alphabet, Amazon, and Nvidia carry additional risk: all three companies hold stakes in Anthropic, and a valuation decline will hit their profitability.
The withdrawn price range
Investor interest in the IPO has weakened. A potential valuation of Anthropic at up to $2 trillion was previously discussed; now the figures being cited start at $1 trillion. The withdrawal of the documents revealed a price range for the first time: about 867 million shares at $70–80 apiece, which would raise roughly $60.7–69.3 billion. After that, Anthropic notified banks that the pricing details were incorrect and promised to present updated documentation soon.
Meanwhile, crypto exchange traders are setting their own price. The ANT perpetual contract on Hyperliquid, trading pre-IPO (pre-IPO perpetual), was worth $98.31 on Tuesday morning — roughly 23% above the upper bound of the withdrawn range. Trading could start as early as November 19 or 20.
Cryptalist analysis: The market has effectively turned Anthropic's pre-IPO perpetual into a leading indicator of risk appetite across the entire AI segment, and the current 23% premium to the withdrawn range reflects a speculative bet on a successful debut. If the updated prospectus confirms a valuation closer to $1 trillion, a correction is likely both in Hyperliquid derivatives and in chip supplier stocks. Anthropic's public listing will be a key test of the sustainability of AI capital expenditures — and, accordingly, of the performance of related crypto assets.