On November 9, KAMAZ shares on the Moscow Exchange demonstrated one of the sharpest intraday surges of the month: the stock gained more than 20% following Vladimir Putin's statement about launching a new program to renew regional and municipal transport. However, by the morning of November 10, the quotes had lost some of their gains — the market realized that the euphoria was built on expectations rather than signed contracts.
The program could provide KAMAZ with new orders and give regions and passengers updated transport. The key risk is that the volume, timeline, and financing mechanism of the initiative were not mentioned at the meeting. If the details turn out to be more modest than expected, investors who bought the stock at the peak could end up at a loss.
Price Movement Timeline
During the main session on November 9, KAMAZ shares were up 4.62% by 14:30 Moscow time, trading at 61.1 rubles. The rally accelerated to 20.03% by 16:35 Moscow time — the price rose to 70.1 rubles. By 18:50 Moscow time, the quotes had dropped to 66.2 rubles (+13.36%), retreating nearly 4 rubles from the intraday high.
The trigger for buying was the president's statement at a Kremlin meeting with the head of Tatarstan, Rustam Minnikhanov. The program to renew regional and municipal transport was described as necessary and capable of supporting the machine-building industry. Minnikhanov, in turn, reported that the situation with KAMAZ is improving: after a brief downturn, the company is operating normally. Investors received two signals at once — political support for the industry and the regional head's assurance that the company is emerging from the slump. At the same time, the volume of future orders and KAMAZ's share in them remain unknown, so the share price mainly reflects expectations.
By 10:20 Moscow time on November 10, the stock had fallen 2.41% to 64.7 rubles. Some investors are likely taking profits: the price has moved down nearly 8% from the November 9 peak but remains above the 61.1 ruble mark — the level at which the stock stood during the day before the main surge. Over the week, the shares gained 12.72%, over the month — 15.12%, but lost 20.32% over the year and 48.53% over five years. The spike has so far only partially offset the previous decline: those who bought the shares a year ago are still in the red.
A Wave of Sharp Swings on the Moscow Exchange
The sharp rise in KAMAZ continued a series of November spikes on the Moscow Exchange. On November 5, VK shares gained more than 27%, and the exchange held a discrete auction for them — a special trading regime triggered when the price deviates by 20% or more from the previous day's close. The same wave affected other stocks: M.Video shares rose nearly 27% on November 5, and on November 6 the exchange launched a similar auction for Cian shares. Seligdar's management sent appeals to the Central Bank and the Moscow Exchange the same day due to sharp price fluctuations and abnormal trading volumes — such spikes are already concerning the companies themselves.
The same mechanism triggers during a crash as well: Eurotrans shares fell 24.3% on the morning of November 9, the day of KAMAZ's surge, to 16.2 rubles. The decline followed the closure of the company-owned Traсса gas station network, and unlike the rally on expectations, here investors reacted to a real blow to the business.
Cryptalist Analysis: The KAMAZ case is a classic example of an event-driven rally on a political catalyst without fundamental confirmation: a rapid 20% gain was followed by profit-taking by the next session. Until specific parameters of the program emerge — order volume, timelines, and funding sources — the stock will remain hostage to the news cycle and heightened volatility. For institutional investors, the key signal will be not rhetoric but signed contracts and disclosure of the initiative's budget.