The XRP market is showing a rare divergence of signals: while institutional products are losing capital and the spot price has declined for a fifth consecutive session to $1.10, retail traders are ramping up bullish bets with unprecedented activity. Such a divergence warrants close analysis, since historically it is precisely these periods that have preceded both strong reversals and waves of forced liquidations.
Exchange activity has hit multi-month highs
The average volume of spot XRP trading over the seven-day period from October 28 to November 9 rose by 53.2% — from $513 million to $786 million. Volume outside Binance increased from $384 million to $590 million (+53.6%), while on Binance itself it rose from $129 million to $196 million (+51.9%). The largest exchange's share holds at around 25%.
The number of addresses transferring XRP to exchanges also increased. The net difference between depositing and withdrawing wallets on November 9 reached +2485 on Coinbase, +1370 on Bybit, and +889 on Crypto.com — a total of 4744. For each of the three platforms, this is the highest since August 20. The Binance figure was just +2.
A positive value means that there are more wallets sending coins to the exchange than withdrawing them. Such an inflow is usually interpreted as preparation for selling, but user behavior varies noticeably across different platforms.
Of particular note is the whale dynamics on Binance: their combined net outflow from the exchange since November 4 has decreased by $356 million, or 34.1% — from $1.045 billion to $689 million. The shift occurred after the security incident on October 29, when Binance promised to fully cover the losses of affected users from its own funds.
The futures market is overheated with optimism
Funding rates on XRP perpetual futures on Binance have risen to their highest level in more than a year. A positive value means that those betting on price appreciation are the ones paying — which means such traders are in the majority. The last time rates were this high was in October 2025, a few months after XRP set a record at $3.55.
Total funding rates over 30 days have recovered to +0.18%, but the shift in sentiment occurred already at the end of the rebound: the coin entered a 30% correction, while traders on Binance continue to hold long positions. Peaks of optimism have historically coincided with price tops, and the most negative rates with bottoms.
Meanwhile, 9.37 million XRP, or $10.4 million, were withdrawn from spot XRP ETFs in just a single session — one of the worst results of the year. The skew toward buying on futures is already proving costly: long liquidations on November 8 amounted to nearly $39 million, while short liquidations were only $366 thousand. Open interest on XRP futures holds at around $2.51 billion, and if the daily candle closes below $1, the price could drop to $0.86.
An additional source of pressure is Evernorth, which holds about 473 million XRP on its balance sheet: its shares have fallen nearly 47% since its Nasdaq listing in October. The company has registered 73.7 million shares for possible resale, although a selling ban applies to Ripple until April 9, 2027.
Cryptalist analysis: The XRP market is in a state of fragile equilibrium: institutional outflows through ETFs and the weakness of corporate treasuries are being offset by the aggressive leverage of retail traders. The combination of a yearly high in funding rates with a falling price forms a classic precondition for a liquidation cascade, and the resilience of the $1 level will be the key trigger for the medium-term direction. Cryptalist recommends that institutional participants monitor open interest dynamics and ETF flows as leading indicators of a regime change.