Bitcoin has found itself caught in the grip of two risk factors at once: large holders are increasingly moving coins to exchanges, while the aggregate volume of borrowed positions on the market remains elevated. For BTC holders, this is a signal of possible renewed seller pressure; for leveraged traders, it is the threat of another wave of liquidations, although some positions have already been closed.
The key CryptoQuant indicator — the Exchange Whale Ratio, which reflects the share of the ten largest transfers in the total inflow of BTC to exchanges — has repeatedly exceeded 0.4, that is, 40%, since late October. A rising share of large deposits does not in itself prove that whales are selling coins: large transfers to exchanges are often associated with a change of custodian or the posting of collateral. Nevertheless, the combination of this signal with weak price dynamics requires heightened attention.
Spot demand remains fragile
BTC's weakness emerged against the backdrop of stock market strength: US equities rose thanks to cheaper oil. At the same time, investors withdrew $411.9 million from spot bitcoin ETFs on November 6 alone, and $1.28 billion over the week. Such an outflow indicates fragile demand from large institutional investors. Buying partially returned on Binance and OKX, but on Coinbase, according to available data, sellers still predominated.
The second indicator — the Estimated Leverage Ratio, which assesses the activity of borrowed funds usage. The coefficient held at 0.22–0.24 in mid-October, rose to approximately 0.265 by early November, and dropped to 0.249 after the sell-off. Some traders reduced leverage, but the indicator is still above the October level. At the same time, this data cannot establish exactly how many long positions were liquidated.
On November 9, the BTC price fell from above $75,600 to almost $73,400, then rebounded to $75,500 and declined again to approximately $74,600 overnight into November 10, Moscow time. Mass liquidations of long positions — leveraged bets on growth — intensified the decline.
What to watch next
The main question is not whether BTC has found a price bottom, but whether spot market buyers can absorb potential supply from exchanges without the help of traders trading on margin. Before talking about a sustained recovery, it is worth monitoring spot CVD (the cumulative difference between market buys and sells), the Coinbase premium, ETF flows, and leverage dynamics. The Coinbase premium — the difference between the BTC price on that exchange and on other venues — usually serves as an indicator of demand from US investors.
The divergence with the stock market emerged as early as last week: the Nasdaq gained 1.1% on Friday, while bitcoin remained around $76,000 over the weekend. Outflows from ETFs and an unexpectedly strong US labor market report add further pressure: the chances of another Fed rate hike have increased, and expensive credit reduces interest in volatile investments. From the coin's dynamics, earlier than other assets, it is clear that investors are losing their willingness to take risks: BTC failed to hold above $80,000 after the US midterm elections and has fallen about 13% since the start of 2026, while the Invesco QQQ Trust fund has risen approximately 7%.
The technical picture also depends on the return of demand: BTC's weekly candle closed below the 50-week moving average — the average price over a year — for the first time in two months. If the price does not return above this line by the end of the week, a drop to $60,000 cannot be ruled out, while a quick return would make the breakdown a false one.
Cryptalist analysis: The market is in a phase of risk redistribution: the growing share of large deposits on exchanges amid persistently elevated leverage creates an asymmetry in favor of further volatility. The sustainability of a recovery will be determined not by price rebounds but by the return of real spot demand and ETF inflows — until then, any rally risks remaining short-term.