Hong Kong's IPO market is rapidly approaching its 2010 all-time high. Chinese technology companies have gained large-scale access to capital through this venue, while investors have a rare opportunity to enter AI business stocks at the start of trading. The flip side of the coin is the risk of overpaying for overheated assets.
Since the start of the year, companies have raised $51.9 billion through IPOs in Hong Kong — the best result since 2020, when the total volume of offerings amounted to $51.6 billion. The historical record was set in 2010, when issuers raised $57.8 billion. Thus, the market needs to add less than $6 billion, and analysts suggest that the maximum could be updated by year-end.
Growth structure: a series of large deals, not a single mega-listing
The current upswing rests on a series of significant offerings rather than a single giant deal. Ten companies each raised more than $1 billion — among them Zhongji Innolight and Luxshare Precision Industry. By comparison, in 2010 there were only seven such deals, and the $20.4 billion listing of insurer AIA Group accounted for more than a third of all proceeds that year.
Chinese companies from the AI sector and related industries carried out a substantial portion of deals this year. However, investors have recently become more cautious about such issuers: buyers of new shares risk encountering a weak trading debut, while the companies themselves may receive less money than they expected.
Some issuers have already postponed their exchange debut to 2027. In particular, Baidu's AI chip unit Kunlunxin filed for an IPO in Hong Kong back in January, but now expects to list only next year. Alibaba Group Holding, meanwhile, is preparing its chip business T-Head for listing. If large deals continue to slip, the 2010 record may remain unbroken.
Regulatory pressure on the mainland market
Mainland China's regulator has instructed banks to suspend IPOs and large share sales by existing shareholders until the market recovers. The authorities are trying to stop the sell-off: the CSI 300 index lost 8.5% in October, and investor wariness toward Chinese tech companies is also affecting IPO queues in Hong Kong.
At the same time, other emerging markets are stepping up preparations for offerings. Kazakhstan's authorities are preparing IPOs of three to five large private companies with a total value of $14.7 billion, while railway company KTZ and gas company QazaqGaz are due to list in 2026–2029. Uzbekistan plans to bring five large issuers from the National Investment Fund's portfolio to the market, including Uzbekistan Airways and Uzpromstroybank (SQB), in 2027–2028. These deals will fall in the same period to which some Chinese companies have postponed their Hong Kong IPOs — competition for investor capital in emerging markets may intensify.
Cryptalist analysis: Hong Kong demonstrates a sustained ability to absorb large offerings even as risk appetite cools in the AI segment, confirming its status as a key hub for Chinese capital. However, the postponement of some listings to 2027 signals the formation of an "overhang" of deferred supply that could limit the potential for further growth in volumes. For investors, the key becomes not chasing the record but selectively picking issuers with adequate valuation.