The ITS platform in Kazakhstan has launched event contracts on the future IPO of Claude's developer, Anthropic, as well as on the National Bank's December decision on the base rate. An accurate forecast can bring an investor a payout dozens of times larger than the amount invested, but if wrong, the contract is zeroed out and the funds are lost.
ITS operates on the model of the American prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket: traders independently determine the price of a contract, and it reflects the probability of an event. Kazakhstan has become one of the first 5–10 markets in the world with such a product, but there are still few trades, and the section operates in test mode under the supervision of the regulator.
What you can buy on ITS
The main novelty was 26 event contracts on Anthropic's IPO on the US Nasdaq exchange. Buyers can forecast both the fact of the listing by the end of 2026–2027 and the company's market value following the first day of trading — from "up to $1.25 trillion" to "from $3 trillion."
The platform also opened trading on the National Bank of Kazakhstan's decision on the base rate at its meeting on December 4, 2026. Investors choose one of three outcomes — an increase, a decrease, or no change — and the prices of these contracts show how participants assess the chances of loans becoming more or less expensive.
The prediction market went live on ITS on September 8, 2026. In the first two months, the exchange launched 54 contracts across six underlying assets — from US Fed and NBK rates to the BTC price and shares of SpaceX, AMD, and Netflix. Participants concluded 1,090 trades, that is, about 18 per day, so a large order may not find a buyer or seller.
ITS management also discussed with market participants and journalists the possible launch of similar contracts on the IPO of the national railway operator Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ). KTZ's listing, scheduled for May 2026, was postponed to 2027.
How the contracts work and where the risk lies
Each contract is structured on an "all or nothing" basis: if the event occurs, it pays $1; if not, $0. The buyer pays between $0.01 and $0.99 for it, and this price shows in real time how traders assess the probability of the outcome.
If a contract costs $0.02, meaning the chance of the event is estimated at 2%, then if it occurs, the payout will exceed the investment by 50 times. The flip side of such a return is obvious: if the event does not occur, the buyer loses the entire amount.
The platform does not bet against its own clients — this is the key difference from bookmakers, who create the contracts themselves and take the side against the client. All trades are fully collateralized by participants' money in the Central Counterparty — an ITS structure that guarantees settlement, so the risk of non-payment is reduced to zero.
The section operates under the supervision of the AFSA regulator in the FinTechLab sandbox of the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) — a special regime where new financial products are tested. The company plans to move to the regular regime, add contracts on currency rates and corporate events such as SpaceX's mission to Mars, and, after obtaining AFSA licenses, launch currency derivatives, stock options, and instruments for digital and tokenized assets.
Why this is part of a larger reform
The launch of event contracts coincided with the restructuring of the country's stock market: Kazakhstan is preparing a new law "On the Capital Market," which will replace the securities law in force since 2003. The bill is planned to be submitted to the Kurultai in December 2026, and the rules for exchanges, companies, and private investors depend on it.
The authorities expect that under the capital market development program through 2030, private companies will begin to list on the exchange, and they are preparing a single window for submitting documents and tax incentives for them. Each new listing gives businesses money for development, and ITS — a potential occasion for contracts modeled on Anthropic and KTZ.
The National Bank, on whose rate decision ITS has already opened contracts, is itself moving to digital instruments: for the first time it is placing conventional and tokenized notes in a single issue — short-term debt securities worth 50 billion tenge (about $112 million) with a 91-day maturity. It is precisely this segment that ITS plans to enter after obtaining AFSA licenses.
Cryptalist analysis: The launch of event contracts on Anthropic's IPO in Kazakhstan demonstrates the institutional legitimization of prediction markets outside the United States and creates a precedent for regulated access to probabilistic instruments for investors in Central Asia. However, low liquidity — about 18 trades per day — limits practical applicability for large positions, and the binary payout structure carries the risk of complete capital loss. For institutional participants, the key factor will be ITS's transition from the AFSA sandbox to a full licensing regime and the scaling of its contract pool.