On Tuesday, the Ethereum price momentarily dropped to $2,000. The trigger was the release of US inflation data, which came in above expectations and stirred financial markets. Later, ETH recovered to $2,060, but the asset remains under pressure. At the same time, a key on-chain indicator — the exit queue from staking — is sending an unexpected signal: holders are in no hurry to part with their locked coins.
Market dynamics are driven by an unusual trend in Ethereum staking statistics. Investors are not rushing to withdraw locked ETH, which may indicate that a long-term market shift is approaching.
The exit queue from staking has sharply contracted
On October 11, about 457,840 ETH were in the exit queue from staking. By November 9, the figure had practically collapsed — by almost 99%, to 5,061 ETH. Now the queue has grown to approximately 66,000 ETH, but this is still about 86% below October levels.
This indicator is fundamentally important: withdrawing ETH from staking is a way to prepare coins for sale. A small queue indicates an absence of noticeable pressure for a rapid exit from staking, although it does not allow one to judge possible sell-offs by other means.
At the same time, approximately 44.5 million ETH, or 36.4% of the coin's total supply, remain in staking. An increase in the share of locked coins can support the ETH price in the medium and long term by reducing the readily available supply on the market.
However, the backlog of new deposits has fallen sharply: whereas in February more than 4 million ETH were in the entry queue, now there are about 910,000 ETH. This indicates a decline in the volume of new staking applications.
Risks from large holders
Additional threat is created by the activity of large Ethereum holders. In early November, more than 630 daily large transactions with stETH worth from $100,000 were recorded — the highest level since April. High demand for loans shows that stETH is actively used as collateral to obtain ETH and other assets. Such loans increase the risk of liquidations during sharp market declines.
On Tuesday, ETH already dropped below $2,050 — an intraday signal level. Simultaneously, on November 9, spot Ethereum ETFs lost $184.6 million.
In the coming months, growth in staking volume could give Ethereum additional support if demand among investors recovers. Consolidation above $2,200 would strengthen this scenario. Continued outflows from ETFs, weak dynamics of new staking deposits, and forced liquidations could cancel the support, opening the way for a decline to $2,000.
Cryptalist analysis: The combination of an almost complete emptying of the exit queue from staking and the retention of 36.4% of supply in lockup points to a structural shortage of liquid ETH supply — a factor that has historically limited the depth of corrections. Nevertheless, pressure from ETF outflows and the growth of collateral positions in stETH create asymmetric liquidation risk, so the resilience of the $2,000 level will remain the key test for the medium-term trend.