Index giant MSCI has decided to exclude Strategy — the largest public company holding bitcoin — from the MSCI USA index as of the close of trading on November 30. For passive funds, this means forced selling of the shares: according to JPMorgan analysts' estimates, about $2.8 billion worth of Strategy shares will be withdrawn from such funds.
Index funds do not build portfolios on their own. When an issuer leaves an index, funds are obligated to sell its shares in accordance with the regulations. The stated amount is based on last year's MSCI proposal and is not the final calculation of the final decision.
Why Strategy is leaving the index
On October 15, MSCI introduced an additional selection criterion. Now companies that do not have significant operating assets are classified as "non-operating" and cannot be included in MSCI global indices.
Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, still operates a software business. However, 850,364 bitcoins acquired for $64.16 billion make up the bulk of its balance sheet, according to the latest SEC filing.
Japan's Metaplanet — another company that has placed a significant portion of its funds in bitcoin — also appeared on MSCI's interim exclusion list in October.
Has the market already priced this in
On Wednesday, Strategy shares closed at $122.35, up 1.06%. After the list was published, the quotes fell 0.85% to $121.31 in over-the-counter trading.
Strategy has stated that the new requirements do not harm the company's business, calling the proposal erroneous, unjustified, and contrary to existing securities laws and accounting principles.
The key moment will come on November 30 — on that day, index funds will begin mass-selling the shares. JPMorgan believes that if other index providers follow MSCI's example, another $8.8 billion will flow out of such funds.
Companies holding bitcoin in corporate reserves offered Wall Street a simple scheme — access to bitcoin through shares. Under MSCI's new rules, such a model is no longer recognized as a real business.
"MSCI should be a mirror of the market, not its judge," said Michael Saylor, founder and chairman of MicroStrategy.
Cryptalist analysis: MSCI's decision marks a structural shift in how institutional indices perceive "bitcoin treasury" companies: the regulatory perimeter is gradually separating operating business from speculative exposure to digital assets. In the short term, this creates technical pressure on Strategy shares near the rebalancing date, while the threat of the rule spreading to other providers could amplify capital outflows to $8.8 billion and become a significant volatility factor for the entire corporate bitcoin reserves segment.