On the morning of November 12, the Moscow Exchange Index (IRUS) rose above 2500 points for the first time since late October — the market's reaction to trilateral talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi. However, the rise was based on expectations rather than reached agreements, and by 10:05 the index had fallen below the key psychological mark.
The talks ended the previous day without breakthrough decisions but left chances for a peace agreement. A restraining factor remains cheaper oil: the January Brent futures contract is trading below $91.3 per barrel, although on Wednesday evening quotes rose above $94 — this is unfavorable for oil and gas companies with large weights in the index.
Growth Leaders and Signals from the Talks
By 07:37 Moscow time, the Moscow Exchange Index gained 0.5% and reached 2502.67 points; the RTS Index rose by the same amount — to 953.76 points. By 10:05, the indicator declined to 2490.88 points (−0.16%). Over five days it gained 0.45%, over a month — 4.52%, but since the start of the year it has lost 8.84%.
VK shares rose more than others in the morning — by 5.4%, followed by AFK Sistema shares (+2.1%), T-Technologies (+1.9%), and VTB (+1.6%). Rusal shares (+1%), Severstal (+0.9%), and Moscow Exchange (+0.8%) were also in positive territory.
The leaders by turnover were T-Technologies, VK, and VTB shares, which accounted for slightly more than half of the total. Demand in the morning was concentrated in a few stocks rather than distributed across the entire market.
Vladimir Medinsky, aide to the President of Russia and head of the Russian delegation in Abu Dhabi, noted in an interview the previous day that, in his feeling, the meeting participants managed to move closer to peace. According to him, much now depends on Ukraine, the US position, and whether "Europe will regain its senses." Medinsky also emphasized that "in any case, all the tasks we set will be achieved."
IT Stocks, Retail, and Gold: How the Moscow Exchange Is Changing
VK shares are not rising for the first time: 10 days ago, on November 2, the IT sector of the Moscow Exchange led the growth, and VK shares gained more than 23% at the start of trading. Experts then considered the rise speculative, so, in their assessment, buyers at the peak risk losing money on a pullback.
Two days ago, the Moscow Exchange began publishing the perpetual portfolio of individuals: the perpetual index futures (IMOEXF) accounted for 22.7% of it at the end of October. Index fluctuations directly affect the positions of private traders, while the bitcoin index futures (BTCUSDF) with a 0.3% share remains a niche instrument for them so far.
The exchange metals market is also growing: precious metals turnover reached a record 590 billion rubles in October. Over 97% of turnover came from gold, but the share of private investors in transactions with it was only 4.7%.
Cryptalist Analysis: The market reacted to a geopolitical signal rather than fundamental improvements — hence the quick pullback below 2500 points and the concentration of demand in a narrow set of stocks. The sustainability of the recovery will depend on real agreements from the talks and the dynamics of oil quotes, whose pressure on the oil and gas sector remains a key risk for the index.