Bitcoin risks getting stuck in a sideways range for months. Buyers in the market are becoming fewer, and the dollar has sharply moved upward. Previously, under such conditions, the first cryptocurrency never once rose.

Analysts tracking the correlation of digital assets with traditional markets warn that investors expecting a quick rebound may face serious disappointment. The logic here is simple and harsh — when the dollar strengthens, there is less free money in the global system. Investors buy risky assets less often, and bitcoin suffers among the first.

The dollar has broken out of its range — and that's a bad sign

Throughout its history, bitcoin has never once sustained a full-fledged bull market during a strong dollar rally. Previously, everything followed one scenario: bitcoin fell for a long time, then the dollar began to weaken, and only after that did the cryptocurrency move into growth.

Now the opposite is happening. The DXY dollar index, which reflects the exchange rate of the US currency against major world currencies, has broken upward out of the range in which it stood for more than 500 days. Such trends do not break quickly — even if the dollar reverses downward, waiting for that will take much longer than market participants hope.

For investors, this is fundamentally important, since it is precisely the dollar's dynamics that determine when bitcoin will start growing again. While the US currency is strengthening, counting on a quick rebound is risky. Those who buy now in hopes of quick profit may be left for a long time with an asset that is treading water.

There is no source for new money

The dollar turned out not to be the only problem. Pressure on the market is being intensified by several factors at once:

  • the US Federal Reserve raised its key rate in the third quarter for the first time since 2023, and expensive money makes risky assets less attractive;
  • the situation around the US midterm elections does not favor the crypto industry;
  • miners are selling bitcoins at record pace;
  • many mining companies are switching to data centers for AI.

Against such a backdrop, big money is unlikely to flow into bitcoin. And without an influx of new money, a real bull market will not begin.

Separate attention should be paid to the weakening of bitcoin's main idea as "digital gold." The largest corporate holder of bitcoins, Strategy, actively promoted it in 2022, and since 2025 the company has been talking about "credit" and "digital capital." In addition, Strategy's exclusion from the MSCI index has been confirmed — there is now even more uncertainty.

Hoping that bitcoin will go its own way is also not worthwhile. Through spot ETFs and large funds, it has become firmly embedded in traditional finance. Now it depends on the global economy more than ever.

The conclusion for investors is to be patient. For now, all that remains is to hope that the market avoids a major shock. But even in that case, it will take a lot of time to shed excess borrowed funds and bring buyers back. Experienced market participants are not rushing to buy and are waiting for money to start returning to the system.

Cryptalist analysis: The current market configuration points to the predominance of macro factors over the internal drivers of the crypto sector. Sustained DXY growth combined with the Fed's tight policy and capital outflow from risky assets creates an environment in which bitcoin will most likely remain in range-bound trading. Institutional investors should focus on signals of a dollar reversal and inflows into spot ETFs as key indicators of a trend change.