Russia has finally received a basic framework for regulating cryptocurrencies, but it is still premature to assess the effectiveness of the new rules. Its CIS neighbors are unlikely to blindly copy the Russian model — each country will have to develop its own approach while synchronizing it with other jurisdictions. Andrey Tugarin, founder of the law firm GMT Legal, said this at the CIPHCOM 26 conference in Moscow.
The market now has a legal foundation
Tugarin recalled that several years of discussion about crypto rules had not produced a result. The situation changed on September 1, when the basic legal framework came into force.
It is now clear how market participants are licensed, who acts as organizers of circulation — exchanges and exchange offices — and who may work with cryptocurrency. This minimum is enough to state that regulation exists in Russia.
At the same time, according to the expert, it will be possible to assess how the new rules will work in practice no earlier than in a year or two. The public sector and business set different evaluation criteria for themselves, and the real picture will emerge only after the entire system is launched.
The CIS will align rules rather than copy them
Tugarin disagrees that its neighbors will follow in Russia's footsteps. In his view, this is about synchronization and integration of existing regulatory models, not direct copying. On this basis, countries will conclude international agreements — such integration became possible precisely because of the emergence of the law in Russia.
From others' experience, the expert suggests adopting above all the mistakes made in regulating exchanges and exchange offices. An illustrative example is Belarus, where the idea of a crypto bank is being developed. According to Tugarin's assessment, such a story is too heavy for the Russian Central Bank, and the Bank of Russia is unlikely to agree to implement it.
Another case is Kyrgyzstan, where the regulator changed. The reasons for this require separate analysis: otherwise Russia will also have to create a new regulator on the fly, which will stall the entire market. The second typical mistake is a sharp increase in the threshold for entering the legal sector through large fees and high requirements for charter capital and own funds. The regulator's task is to motivate the market to enter the legal perimeter, not to push it away.
Cryptalist analysis: The formation of a legal framework in Russia sets a benchmark for the entire region, but does not create a template that can be mechanically reproduced. The key risk for the CIS market is not the absence of laws, but the tightening of entry barriers, which could drive liquidity into the shadow segment. The most likely scenario is a gradual harmonization of rules through bilateral agreements, where jurisdictions that bet on stimulating legal circulation rather than fiscal pressure will win.