Bitcoin perpetual futures have been trading below the spot price for 156 consecutive hours — a rare market configuration that simultaneously heightens the risk of forced liquidations for leveraged traders and creates the threat of sharp price swings for spot BTC holders.
As of 08:00 Moscow time on November 12, the average price of perpetual contracts across 14 venues was 0.047% below spot. Such a basis value has occurred in only 1% of hours throughout the entire observation history. The negative basis has persisted for six and a half days.
Traders ramp up leverage even as futures trade at a discount
A negative basis typically signals that sellers outweigh buyers on the futures market. However, open interest rose by 22,000 BTC over the week — to 367,400 BTC. This is one of the largest increases since August. Traders are actively opening new leveraged positions, even though buyers remain scarce.
With this combination — rising open interest against a weak basis — the market becomes vulnerable to cascading liquidations: an exchange forcibly closes a trade if a trader lacks sufficient collateral, and mass liquidations can accelerate price movement. Over the week, the BTC price already fell from roughly $80,000 to $73,586.
The signal will lose its intensity if the basis rises above zero and open interest begins to contract. The precedent of August 19 is telling: at that time, position volume was comparable, and over the following seven days the price rose 14%. High leverage does not always lead to a decline — but as long as the basis remains below zero, the risk of sharp fluctuations persists.
What other market signals say
Bitcoin may, for the first time in history, fall below key moving averages just 70 days after returning above them, whereas previously the price stayed above them for at least 777 days. BTC is now trading around $73,600 — below the 50-week average near $75,200.
Bitcoin's share of total crypto market capitalization has risen to 60.98%, reaching its highest level since May 2026, as altcoins are losing value faster than BTC. If deleveraging on the futures market does begin, altcoin holders face the risk of losing more than bitcoin owners under such dynamics. An additional backdrop — the ratio of bitcoin purchases to sales by companies has fallen to 89.58%; the indicator has dropped below 90% only three times, and each time BTC eventually rose in value.
Cryptalist analysis: The combination of a persistently negative basis and rising open interest is a classic sign of a market overloaded with high-leverage shorts, which increases the likelihood of a sharp squeeze upward at the slightest trigger. At the same time, the weakness in spot and the drop below the 50-week average point to the fragility of the current structure. Cryptalist's institutional view: the market is in a zone of elevated volatility where the risk of cascading liquidations is two-sided, and the key signal of relief will be the basis returning above zero.