For the first time in its entire history, Bitcoin could close two consecutive calendar years with negative returns. In 2025, the coin lost about 6%, and since the start of 2026 — almost 16%.
The decline in 2026 was not unexpected in itself. According to the four-year cycle the market previously followed, this year was supposed to be a losing one. However, 2025 broke the rule: by the same pattern, Bitcoin should have grown, but it fell in price. It is precisely this circumstance that creates an unprecedented configuration.
How much is needed to avoid a record low
There have been four losing years in Bitcoin's history — 2014, 2018, 2022, and 2025. They have never occurred back to back. The coin started the current year at approximately $87,500. To close the year in positive territory, Bitcoin needs to return above that mark — from current levels, that is a gain of about 18.5%.
The phrase "two years in a row" sounds more alarming than the numbers look. Over two years, Bitcoin has lost about 21% in total. Past bear markets were noticeably deeper. For investors, this means a prolonged but so far moderate drawdown, not a collapse.
When the four-year cycle broke
The four-year cycle refers to a model in which the Bitcoin market moves in repeating segments about four years long. It is linked to the halving — the scheduled reduction of the miners' reward by half. After it, the price usually rose and then went into a decline.
Under this model, the second year after the halving should be negative in terms of returns. That was the case in 2014, 2018, and 2022. The last halving took place in 2024, so a minus in 2026 does not contradict the pattern. What was unusual was 2025 — the first case in which Bitcoin closed in the red in the year immediately following the halving. Previously, such years brought the market growth.
In terms of timing, the cycle did play out. The coin set its historical high of $126,198 in October 2025, about a year and a half after the halving. In the two previous cycles, the peak came at a similar time. What changed was not the rhythm but the scale — the rise was weaker, and it was not enough to keep the year in positive territory.
One explanation is the arrival of institutional investors, that is, large funds and companies. In 2025, Bitcoin increasingly moved in step with the US stock market.
Cryptalist analysis: The current configuration points to a structural transformation of the market: correlation with traditional assets and the inflow of institutional capital are smoothing the amplitude of cycles, reducing both explosive growth and the depth of crashes. For institutional participants, the key level remains the $87,500 mark — a return to it will determine whether the historical model persists or whether cyclicality finally gives way to macroeconomic drivers.