The detention of the heads of the state fund Samruk-Kazyna and the national carrier Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ) could push the railway company's IPO back indefinitely. Investors will not get access to shares of one of the country's largest state companies, and KTZ itself risks being left without the $5 billion it planned to use to pay down debts.
Ordinary Kazakhstanis who were counting on buying KTZ securities on local exchanges will also have to wait. Meanwhile, the company's debt burden is growing: in 2025 alone, borrowings increased almost one and a half times, and nearly two-thirds of them are denominated in foreign currency.
Why the offering may be postponed
The detention of the leadership of Samruk-Kazyna and KTZ directly affects the IPO plans. The offering requires a number of corporate decisions that cannot be made amid a criminal investigation within the Samruk-Kazyna group.
The National Security Committee's Anti-Corruption Service detained Samruk-Kazyna Management Board Chairman Nurlan Zhakupov, KTZ head Yelzhas Otynshiyev and other individuals suspected of a corruption offense on November 11. Investigative authorities are establishing all the circumstances of the case.
State fund representatives said in late September that the KTZ IPO was planned for 2026 with a listing on three venues: the Astana International Exchange (AIX), the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX). The proceeds were intended to be used to reduce KTZ's debt burden and for the company's investment projects.
KTZ expected to raise $5 billion for 20% of its shares, valuing the entire company at $30 billion. If the offering is postponed, the carrier will be left without this money just when its debts are growing rapidly.
KTZ's debts are growing faster than its assets
Otynshiyev took charge of KTZ less than four months ago, on July 20, 2026, succeeding Talgat Aldybergenov, who had led the company since July 2025. Before his appointment, he had served on the national carrier's board of directors for more than two years and, since 2023, on the boards of QazaqGaz, KazMunayGas and Kazatomprom.
At the end of 2025, KTZ's assets increased by 28% to 7.6 trillion tenge ($17.1 billion), but liabilities grew faster — by 31% to 5.2 trillion tenge ($11.7 billion). Borrowings added 47% and reached 2.7 trillion tenge ($6.1 billion), while the share of foreign-currency loans rose by 10 percentage points to 65%.
At the same time, the company's revenue grew by 27% over the year to 2.8 trillion tenge ($6.3 billion), and net profit by 87% to 343.6 billion tenge ($773 million). Strong financials could have supported demand for the shares, but growing foreign-currency debt makes the IPO money even more necessary for KTZ.
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are preparing a wave of listings
Kazakhstan's authorities will list three to five private companies with a combined value of 6.6 trillion tenge ($14.7 billion), while KTZ and QazaqGaz will hold IPOs in 2026–2029 with a share allocated to retail investors. Postponing the carrier's offering could weaken the entire program, since it was the state companies that were supposed to show businesses and the public that the local capital market works.
Uzbekistan's authorities are preparing five state companies for IPOs in 2027–2028, including Uzbekistan Airways and Uzpromstroybank (SQB). Their benchmark was the May offering of the National Investment Fund, which sold 35.45% of its shares for $692 million amid foreign bids exceeding $2.9 billion. The delay with KTZ could shift some of foreign investors' interest to the neighboring country.
Cryptalist analysis: The KTZ case demonstrates how corporate governance becomes a key risk factor for emerging capital markets: even strong financials and an ambitious $30 billion valuation do not compensate for institutional uncertainty. For regional investors, this is a signal to reconsider priorities in favor of jurisdictions with a more transparent ownership structure, and for Kazakhstan, it is a test of its ability to retain market trust after the failure of a flagship offering.