Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has entered into a remote debate with investor Liron Shapira, who predicts a drop of more than 50% for bitcoin within two years. Shapira estimates the probability of such a scenario at 50%, claiming that the rapid development of artificial intelligence will undermine the very foundations of trust in the security of the first cryptocurrency. I consider this thesis highly speculative, and Buterin, judging by his reaction, holds a similar position.
Cryptographic resilience versus AI threats
In his response, Buterin called the likelihood of compromising hash functions or the Proof-of-Work mechanism extremely low. He emphasized that even in a hypothetical scenario where computational power capable of challenging SHA-256 emerges, the bitcoin network has built-in adaptation mechanisms. This is not about hard forks or consensus wars, but about planned software updates that do not require agreement from every network participant.
In essence, Buterin dismantles Shapira's argument that AI will make bitcoin vulnerable. Technically, even if we assume that AI systems could optimize attacks on mining pools or find hash collisions, this would not lead to an instant collapse. Bitcoin is not a static protocol, but a living ecosystem with defense mechanisms that evolve alongside threats. Panic around AI often ignores a fundamental principle: cryptographic security relies on mathematical proofs, not on the opponent's computational power.
My expert assessment: Shapira's forecast looks more like an attempt to draw attention to long-term risks than a realistic scenario. Even if AI accelerates key brute-forcing, this would require a quantum leap in computing, not just smarter algorithms. Buterin is right that panic-mongers underestimate the bitcoin community's ability to respond to challenges. The question is not whether AI will break bitcoin, but whether developers will manage to adapt—and here, history shows that they do.