A heated debate has erupted in the world of cryptocurrency: can artificial intelligence crash the value of Bitcoin? Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has decisively rejected the pessimistic scenario according to which BTC could lose more than half of its value in just two years. This dispute unfolded on the social network X, where well-known commentator and host of the Doom Debates podcast, Liron Shapira, presented his alarming forecast.
The core of the conflict: security versus demand
Shapira, known for his research into AI-related risks, estimates the probability of Bitcoin falling below 50% of its current value at roughly one in one. In his scenario, he emphasizes not a decline in demand, but rather a vulnerability in the security system. In his view, AI is capable of undermining the network security guarantees that cryptocurrency holders rely on — from mining power to cryptographic hash functions. However, he did not specify which side of this protection artificial intelligence would weaken.
Buterin responded in the same thread a few hours later, taking a directly opposite position. He stated that he is optimistic about the network's long-term cybersecurity, although he acknowledged that the transition period could be difficult. According to him, Bitcoin is capable of handling any threats that do not require the consent of the entire community to repel. This refers, for example, to updates to clients and mining pools to fend off attacks at the network level. At the same time, he estimates the probability of critical holes in hashes or the Proof-of-Work protocol as almost zero.
A bet on his own portfolio
Notably, Buterin did not make a monetary bet in this dispute, but instead referred to the structure of his own portfolio. "I would offer a bet, but given how my investments are structured, I am already effectively holding it. About 90% of my portfolio is already staked on this," he wrote on X.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $79,827. It is worth noting that a 50% decline would push the price to roughly $40,000, which would be a serious blow to the market.
Significantly, Buterin also suggested that Shapira apply his logic to Ethereum (ETH), since both assets hold cryptocurrency that would sink in the wake of Bitcoin. The question of quantum computing in the context of Ethereum has been discussed since 2026, and researchers have already begun assessing the costs of transitioning to post-quantum cryptography.
My analysis: This dispute is a classic example of how fundamental beliefs about technology collide with macroeconomic fears. Buterin's argument that Bitcoin can adapt to threats without universal consensus is technically sound, but the market often operates not by the laws of logic, but by the laws of fear. Nevertheless, I agree with Buterin: AI is unlikely to become the direct cause of BTC's collapse. Rather, it could amplify already existing market risks, but not create fundamentally new vulnerabilities in the protocol.