The Illusion of Growth: Why SpaceX's Record-Breaking IPO Echoes the Fate of Rocket Lab
An analyst under the pseudonym Wimar.X warns: a scenario is unfolding around the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO that is eerily reminiscent of the Rocket Lab (RKLB) story in 2021. In his view, the hype around the stock is not a sign of growth, but a marker of hype exhaustion. It's time to figure out where the space dream ends and reality begins.
On June 12, 2026, SpaceX went public, conducting the largest IPO in history. Shares were priced at $135, giving the company a valuation of about $1.75 trillion. By the end of the first day of trading on Nasdaq, the stock closed above the offering price. It is in this context that Wimar.X builds his analysis, drawing parallels with the past.
The 2021 Lesson: How Rocket Lab Disappointed Expectations
In 2021, Rocket Lab went public. Back then, everyone kept saying the same thing: this is the future, space stocks will change everything. But then came the part people prefer to stay silent about. According to Wimar.X, RKLB shares crashed 82.8% from their 2021 peak to their 2022 low. Retail investors "bought the dream" and then faced reality.
The analyst applies this logic to SpaceX. In 2026, the same space story repeats: the company has just listed, surrounded by the biggest hype in IPO history, a trillion-dollar valuation, and everyone is again calling it the future. But, as Wimar.X claims, the SPCX valuation is already declining, and this, he says, is not a bullish but a bearish signal.
Why SpaceX Is a Riskier Bet
Wimar.X emphasizes that Rocket Lab had the same space narrative, but SpaceX is much larger, the market around the company is "crowded," and the timing for entry, in his assessment, is worse. The same space euphoria, retail investor chase, a similar story about the future — but with less favorable timing.
From this, he derives a choice for the investor: chase one of the most expensive IPOs in history, or learn the lesson that, in the expert's view, history with Rocket Lab already taught in 2021. Space hype may first drive up quotes and then crash those who chased it.
To confirm his experience, Wimar.X writes that he has been studying macroeconomics for over a decade and has predicted almost all major market peaks, including the October all-time high of Bitcoin (BTC). He urges investors to be cautious and prudent before making investment decisions.
My expert conclusion: History repeats itself, and the SpaceX IPO is a vivid example of how euphoria can cloud judgment. Investors should remember: space is a long game, not a sprint for quick profits. The current SPCX valuation already prices in future successes, and any execution hiccup could lead to a sharp correction. Be careful and do not succumb to the illusion of endless growth.