Market déjà vu: Analyst warns SpaceX IPO could mirror Rocket Lab's fate
The market is frozen in anticipation, but not all investors share the widespread optimism regarding the historic SpaceX IPO. An experienced analyst known by the pseudonym Wimar.X sees alarming signals in the current frenzy, pointing to a possible repeat of the scenario that already unfolded with Rocket Lab shares in 2021.
SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026, conducting the largest initial public offering in history. Shares were priced at $135, giving the company a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. By the end of the first day of trading on Nasdaq, the stock closed above the offering price. It is against this backdrop that Wimar.X builds his argument about an impending trap.
The Lesson of 2021: How Space Euphoria Ended in a Crash
The analyst draws a direct parallel between the current situation and the story of Rocket Lab. In 2021, when the company went public, the market was flooded with the same narratives: "This is the future," "Space stocks will change everything." However, the euphoria was followed by harsh reality.
According to Wimar.X, RKLB shares collapsed by 82.8% from their 2021 peak to their 2022 low. Retail investors, as he puts it, "bought the dream" and then faced the harsh truth. The analyst applies this logic to SpaceX: in 2026, we are seeing the same space story — the company has just listed, surrounded by the biggest IPO frenzy in history, a trillion-dollar valuation, and everyone is again calling it the future. However, as Wimar.X claims, the SPCX valuation is already starting to decline, and in his view, this is not a bullish but a bearish signal.
Why SpaceX Is a Riskier Bet
Wimar.X emphasizes that Rocket Lab had the same space narrative, but SpaceX is much larger, the market around the company is "overcrowded," and the timing for entry, in his assessment, is worse. The same space euphoria, the chase by retail investors, a similar story about the future — but with less favorable timing.
From this, he derives a clear choice for the investor: either chase one of the most expensive IPOs in history, or learn the lesson that, in the expert's opinion, history has already taught with Rocket Lab in 2021. The space hype may initially drive up quotes, and then crash those who chased it.
To support his experience, Wimar.X writes that he has been studying macroeconomics for over a decade and has predicted almost all major market peaks, including Bitcoin's (BTC) historic October high. He urges investors to be cautious and prudent before making investment decisions.
Expert opinion: The comparison with Rocket Lab seems justified. The market tends to extrapolate current successes into an infinite future, especially in such "charismatic" sectors as space. However, fundamental indicators and the macroeconomic backdrop may introduce their own corrections. Investors should evaluate SpaceX not as a "story of the future," but as a large, yet still high-risk company with a giant capitalization built into the price from day one.