Bernstein predicts explosive revenue growth for Robinhood in prediction markets: $586 million by 2026
The FIFA World Cup has become a powerful catalyst for Robinhood. Bernstein analysts expect the brokerage platform to benefit significantly from record activity in prediction markets. In the very first days of the tournament, the platform's daily trading volume surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, when the USA vs. Paraguay match took place. For comparison, last year's Super Bowl generated only $1.4 billion in volume.
Bernstein's forecasts are impressive: Robinhood's revenue from prediction markets is expected to grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026 — an increase of 286%. By 2026, this segment will account for about 17% of the company's commission income and 10% of its total revenue. These are not just numbers — they signal that prediction markets are becoming a systemically important direction for Robinhood.
Partnership with Rothera and Platform Advantages
The key growth driver has been Robinhood's partnership with Rothera — a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearing house. Since its launch on May 28, the platform has processed about 200 million contracts, with nearly the entire volume coming from contracts for the FIFA World Cup and MLB. Robinhood leverages its massive user base and competitive pricing: the commission is as low as $0.01 per contract, and Gold subscribers receive up to a 50% discount.
However, competition is intensifying. Polymarket has already launched contracts on private company events, and Kalshi has introduced CFTC-regulated perpetual futures on major cryptocurrencies to the market. This creates pressure on Robinhood, but for now, the platform maintains its leadership through scale and audience loyalty.
From my perspective, prediction markets are at a turning point. They are ceasing to be a niche tool for enthusiasts and are becoming a full-fledged financial product. By combining access to retail investors with low commissions, Robinhood could establish itself in this segment for the long term. However, it is worth remembering that the head of Bubblemaps recently called such markets "a tool for intelligence and information warfare" — regulatory risks remain a serious challenge.