Quantum Alarm: Google Lowers Ethereum Hacking Threshold by 20 Times — Defenders Prepare a Response
The quantum threat to cryptocurrencies is no longer an abstraction. Recent research results from Google Quantum AI have shown that breaking Ethereum's security will require 20 times less computational resources than previously thought. This changes the timeline and demands an immediate response from the industry.
According to updated data, the ECDSA algorithm, which underlies the signature of every transaction in Ethereum, can be broken using just 1,200 logical qubits. Previous estimates ranged in the tens of thousands. This is a massive reduction in the entry threshold for potential attacks.
Why is this critical? Every time a user sends a transaction, they reveal their public key. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could compute the private key from it and drain the wallet. Already today, about 0.1% of funds in the network are on addresses with exposed public keys, making them vulnerable.
Ethereum Foundation: A Strategic Response to the Threat
In January 2026, the Ethereum Foundation formed a dedicated Post-Quantum Security team led by Tom Coratge. Its work is fully open, and key researcher Justin Drake considers protection against the quantum threat a top strategic priority.
The Foundation announced the Poseidon Prize, a $1 million award for breakthrough solutions in hash-based cryptography, relying on three NIST post-quantum cryptography standards. In the near future, the implementation of EIP-8141 is planned, which will allow each account to choose its own signature scheme. This standard will be included in the Hegota hard fork, scheduled for the second half of 2026.
Ethereum expects to complete its technical overhaul by approximately 2029 — the same milestone as Google for its systems. In parallel, the Kohaku project is available, allowing anyone to create a quantum-resistant smart account based on ERC-4337 without a hard fork, for a symbolic fee on the test network.
The Rest of the Industry: Silence on the Airwaves
Unlike Ethereum, no other major blockchain has created a dedicated post-quantum security team or presented a comparable action plan. Bitcoin, Solana, and other projects face the same ECDSA vulnerabilities, but so far prefer to postpone a solution.
The figure of 1,200 qubits is not yet a death sentence: achieving it will require significant engineering breakthroughs. But a 20-fold reduction in the risk estimate from one of the most advanced quantum programs in the world is not a signal the market can ignore.
My expert opinion: The Ethereum Foundation is demonstrating exemplary proactivity, but 2029 is not a horizon — it's a deadline. The industry as a whole must realize that the quantum threat is not a distant future, but a matter of the coming years. Investors and developers should already start thinking about migrating to post-quantum standards.