The DeFi sector could grow to $2.7 trillion by 2030: drivers and risks
Analysts at Standard Chartered have presented an ambitious forecast for the decentralized finance (DeFi) market: by the end of 2030, the total value locked (TVL) in protocols could reach $2.7 trillion. This implies a 37-fold increase from current levels. The main catalysts for this explosive growth will be tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) and improvements in on-chain protocols.
The key finding of the study is that currently only 3% of stablecoin supply and 10% of total RWA volume are utilized in DeFi. However, by the end of the decade, this share could grow to 30%. Achieving the target of $2.7 trillion would require a ninefold increase in the share of tokenized value involved in the DeFi ecosystem.
Challenges on the Path to Growth
Despite the optimism, the industry faces serious challenges. Chris Kim, head of Axis, warns that issuing the same asset on multiple blockchains leads to liquidity fragmentation and increased operational costs. Meanwhile, Oya Celiktemur, director of sales at Ondo Finance, emphasizes that tokenization itself is not a "magic wand." It cannot automatically turn illiquid assets into liquid ones—deep market mechanisms and institutional infrastructure are required for that.
Uniswap as a Center of Gravity
Standard Chartered particularly highlights the Uniswap platform, viewing it as a potential hub for RWA trading. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at the bank, believes institutional investors will favor this decentralized exchange due to its impeccable reputation and high level of security. In his view, a strategic partnership with the traditional financial sector will allow Uniswap to significantly narrow the market capitalization gap with the centralized exchange Coinbase.
My expert opinion: Standard Chartered's forecast looks ambitious but not unfounded. The key risk is precisely liquidity fragmentation and regulatory uncertainty, which could slow down RWA adoption. However, if institutional giants truly begin to actively use DeFi protocols, as Kendrick predicts, we will witness not just growth but a complete restructuring of the financial system. Keep an eye on Uniswap—this project could become an indicator for the entire market.