Spain is the undisputed favorite for the 2026 World Cup: 92% chance of winning the first match and 16% chance of winning the title.
Spain's national team approaches the opening match of the 2026 World Cup against Cape Verde as the absolute favorite. Data from decentralized prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi estimate the probability of a Spanish victory in the first round at over 90%, and the team itself is called the main contender for the trophy.
The tournament, which for the first time in history is hosted by three countries — the USA, Canada, and Mexico — has brought together 48 teams. For Cape Verde, this is a debut at the world championship, while Spain is the reigning European champion and the winner of the 2010 World Cup. The contrast in experience and class is obvious.
Betting Markets: Spanish Dominance
On Polymarket, the contract for Spain's victory in the match on June 15 is trading at $0.93, reflecting a 93% probability. A draw is valued at $0.055, and a Cape Verde success at a meager $0.023. The total market volume for this match has exceeded $14.59 million. On Kalshi, the picture is similar: 92% for a Spain win, 7% for a draw, and only 3% for an upset by the underdog. The betting volume on this platform amounted to about $8.29 million.
Analysts are unanimous: Spain surpasses its opponent in squad composition, tactical training, and playing class. Cape Verde, having qualified for the World Cup for the first time, is objectively the underdog. The markets only confirm this picture.
Spain — Leader in the Title Race
In bets on the overall tournament winner, Spain also occupies the top spot. On Polymarket, the probability of its triumph is estimated at 16.3%. They are followed by France (16.2%), Portugal (10.8%), England (9.7%), and Argentina (8.1%). The total market volume for the world champion has exceeded $2.35 billion.
On Kalshi, the breakdown is almost identical: Spain — 17.4%, France — 16.4%, Portugal — 11.6%. Betting volume here reached $283 million. Both platforms unanimously place "La Roja" at the top of the list of contenders.
It is worth noting that other matches will also take place on June 15. According to Polymarket data, Belgium's victory over Egypt is estimated at 62%, Uruguay's success against Saudi Arabia at 68%, and Iran is considered the favorite in the pair with New Zealand with a 54% probability. Kalshi gives similar figures: 62%, 67%, and 52% respectively.
Analyst's comment: Spain indeed looks formidable against the competition, but 16% for the title is not such a high bar. The market is clearly factoring in a premium for the status of the reigning European champion, but one should not discount France and Argentina, which have no less playing potential. The upcoming match against Cape Verde is an ideal opportunity for the Spaniards to build form and confidence, but the real tests will begin in the playoffs.