QuEra promises the first fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2028 — a threat to cryptography?
Quantum computing is moving from the realm of theoretical experiments into practical application. QuEra Computing, a company specializing in developing quantum systems based on neutral atoms, has announced plans to launch the first fault-tolerant machine as early as 2028. This system will be deployed on the Amazon Braket cloud service as part of an expanded partnership with Amazon Web Services.
The project, named Libra, boasts impressive specifications. According to my data, the computer's architecture includes more than 256 logical qubits with built-in error correction. The key metric is a target logical error rate of 10⁻⁶. For comparison, current quantum systems demonstrate significantly higher error rates, making them unsuitable for practical cryptanalytic tasks.
QuEra estimates that this configuration will enable approximately 1 million reliable logical quantum operations. This is a critical threshold: such performance could make it possible to apply Shor's algorithm for factoring large numbers, which underpins the breaking of public-key cryptosystems, including RSA and ECDSA used in blockchains.
Although 2028 may seem distant, for the crypto industry, it is already "tomorrow." The development of post-quantum algorithms and the transition to quantum-resistant signature schemes are no longer optional—they are becoming an urgent necessity. Market leaders like Bitcoin and Ethereum must already lay out migration roadmaps, or their security will be called into question sooner than expected.
My analysis: QuEra's progress is not just another PR release. Given the partnership with AWS and the focus on specific fault-tolerance metrics, this is one of the most realistic timelines I have seen. Now is the time for the crypto community to take post-quantum cryptography seriously. Those who start preparing today will be ahead tomorrow.