A crypto whale earned $2.71 million on a Polymarket bet: analysis of the Colombia vs. Uzbekistan match trade
A major player under the pseudonym endlessFate recorded a net profit of $2.71 million on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket. The bet was placed on a FIFA World Cup match between the national teams of Colombia and Uzbekistan, which took place on June 18, 2026.
On-chain data analysts noticed this trade due to its scale and precision of execution. The investor purchased a "Yes" position in the market with the description "Will Colombia win 2026-06-17?". A total of 10,171,908 shares were bought at an average price of 73.3 cents each. The total investment amounted to $7.46 million.
Colombia confidently defeated the World Cup debutant, the Uzbekistan national team, with a score of 3:1. Goals were scored by Daniel Muñoz, Luis Díaz, and substitute Jhaminton Campaz, who found the net in the 9th minute of added time. Uzbekistan's only goal was scored by Abbosbek Fayzullaev, marking the country's first goal in World Cup history.
Revenue Mechanics: How $7.46 Million Turned into $10.17 Million
On Polymarket, each share of the winning outcome is redeemed at $1. After Colombia's victory, 10,171,908 shares yielded a payout of $10.17 million. Of this amount, $7.46 million is the return of the initial investment, and the remaining $2.71 million is net profit.
The key factor in this success was the entry price. Buying at 73.3 cents with a redemption at $1 provided a return of approximately 36.4% in a single day. The lower the purchase price relative to the face value, the higher the final margin. In this case, the trader accurately assessed the probability of the outcome and was not afraid to enter with significant capital.
Trade Results
After the market settlement, the active position in the trader's profile was zeroed out, confirming the trade was closed with a profit. Below are the key parameters:
| Indicator | Value |
| Number of Shares | 10,171,908 |
| Average Share Price | 73.3 cents |
| Total Investment | $7.46 million |
| Total Payout | $10.17 million |
| Net Profit | $2.71 million |
This trade is a vivid example of how decentralized prediction platforms are becoming a full-fledged tool for large capital. Polymarket allows not only for hedging risks but also for achieving double-digit returns on sports events, provided one correctly assesses the market's undervaluation of an outcome.
Analyst's Comment: Such cases confirm that prediction markets are not just entertainment but a serious financial instrument. The ability to read lines and find pricing inefficiencies is valued here as much as on traditional exchanges. However, I must remind you: bets of this magnitude require deep analysis and a readiness for total capital loss in case of failure.