Crypto news

Mining in Russia has finally ceased to be a "gray" zone. Since the end of 2024, the industry has received a clear legal framework: legal entities can officially mine cryptocurrencies after being included in a special register, while for individuals, an energy consumption limit of 6,000 kWh per month has been established, with mandatory reporting to the Federal Tax Service.

Regulation: Tax Benefits and Hidden Risks

Paradoxically, the new law has proven beneficial for miners themselves. Previously, taxes were levied on the entire amount from the sale of a digital asset, but now the fiscal burden falls exclusively on net profit. Moreover, equipment can be depreciated: individuals can write off its cost within one reporting period, while legal entities and individual entrepreneurs can extend this process over 24 months or more.

Expenses officially include costs for electricity, hosting construction, repair work, and forced downtime. According to expert estimates, in the first two years, the profit tax will effectively be zero. The standard rate of 25% for companies looks far more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom.

However, hiding a crypto farm is technically impossible. The colossal and constant energy consumption reveals any illegal facility. Electricity bills skyrocket instantly, and unauthorized connections to transformer substations are visible to the naked eye. Management companies quickly detect anomalies, so uncovering "gray" miners is only a matter of time. Major players have long since legalized, realizing that working within the legal framework is more profitable and safer.

Bitcoin: Cycle Target — $180–250 Thousand

The fundamental indicators of the main digital asset remain unshakable. Information noise, political statements, technical analysis, and geopolitics are not decisive. Bitcoin has a powerful foundation: over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market. The protocol includes a regular difficulty recalculation and a halving every four years. Over 17 years of observations, the market price has never fallen below the production cost for most devices — this forms a reliable economic floor.

Forecasts for the timing of the growth start had to be adjusted. The expected bull rally was supposed to begin in the fall of 2025, but on October 11, the market broke classic historical patterns. As a result, the bottom was found in early 2026. At the same time, the final price targets remained unchanged: a minimum level of $180 thousand, an average of $250 thousand. These levels are entirely based on a mathematical model and should mark the peak of the current cycle, after which the industry will approach the next halving.

Extreme Scenario: "Death Spiral"

A negative scenario cannot be ruled out. If by the time of the halving the exchange rate drops to $130 thousand and the production cost rises to $180 thousand, a dangerous imbalance will arise. About half of the world's mining capacity could shut down in a single day. Due to the embedded rule of difficulty adjustment, the time for generating new blocks will stretch significantly, triggering an avalanche-like exit of miners from the network, panic among investors, and a deep drop in quotes. Additional risks are created by the concentration of computing power in the United States, increasing the system's vulnerability to a 51% attack.

Nevertheless, I am confident in a favorable outcome. Large institutional capital will not allow a catastrophe and will support the exchange rate as it approaches the critical threshold. The final levels of the current cycle will be adjusted based on network difficulty indicators, but the fundamental forecast remains bullish.

Expert Opinion: The legalization of mining in Russia is not just about tightening control, but creating a transparent and predictable environment for business. Those who continue to work in the shadows risk not only fines but also criminal charges. Transparency is the only path to sustainable growth in this industry.