Sports predictions on the blockchain: USA and Brazil dominate the 2026 World Cup, while golf on Kalshi broke records
Blockchain-based sports prediction markets continue to gain momentum, and today's data from Polymarket and Kalshi clearly demonstrates this. Ahead of key matches in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the national teams of the USA and Brazil have become the absolute favorites of the day, while the US Open golf tournament on the Kalshi platform attracted a colossal $231 million. These are not just numbers — they are a signal of how decentralized financial instruments are reshaping the sports betting industry.
USA vs Australia: Battle for the Playoffs
In the Group D match, the USA and Australia face off, and analysis from both markets is unanimous: the Americans are clear favorites. Polymarket and Kalshi estimate a US victory at 62%, a draw at 22%, and an Australian success at only 18%. The contract for a US victory on Polymarket is trading at $0.61, reflecting trader confidence after their 4:1 rout of Paraguay in the opening round. Australia, having unexpectedly beaten Turkey 2:0, also approaches the head-to-head match with three points, but the market clearly favors the more powerful attacking line of the Americans.
The market volume for this match on Kalshi exceeded $15.9 million — one of the largest liquidity pools today. A victory here effectively opens the door to the playoffs, so betting is particularly active. From my perspective, such an advantage is justified: the USA demonstrates more balanced play, and their opening performance was significantly more convincing than that of the Australians.
Brazil: No Room for Error
Brazil looks like an even more unequivocal favorite in their match against Haiti. Polymarket estimates a Brazilian victory at 89% with a contract price of $0.89, while Haiti accounts for only about 4%, and a draw at 8%. The market volume for this game was around $3.64 million. However, it is worth noting that Brazil started the tournament imperfectly, drawing with Morocco in the first round. Therefore, a confident victory over Haiti is critically important for the pentacampeões — any misstep could jeopardize their advancement from the group.
In the other matches of the day, the odds also favor the stronger teams. In the Scotland vs. Morocco pairing, the Moroccans are the favorites with odds of $0.58, and in the Turkey vs. Paraguay match, the Turks are slightly ahead with a contract price of $0.47.
Golf on Kalshi: $231 Million and a New Leader
Worthy of special attention is the surge in betting on the Kalshi exchange surrounding the US Open golf tournament. The market for the winner has amassed a colossal volume — about $231 million — making it one of the platform's largest sports markets. As the second round progressed, American Wyndham Clark became the odds leader with a 20% probability of winning. He is followed by Briton Matt Fitzpatrick at 12% and Rory McIlroy at 8.4%.
The 126th US Open tournament takes place from June 18-21 at the Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in New York State, where 156 players are competing for the title. Such a high betting volume shows that prediction markets are increasingly covering not only football but also other sports. This is a trend I am closely monitoring: the integration of DeFi tools into traditional sports opens new horizons for liquidity and audience engagement.
My expert opinion: The surge in volumes on Kalshi to $231 million for a single tournament is not a coincidence but a natural stage in the evolution of prediction markets. Sports and blockchain are becoming an ideal tandem: transparency, instant settlements, and global access attract both hardcore fans and institutional players. In the coming months, we will likely see new records, especially against the backdrop of upcoming major tournaments.