The USA and Brazil dominate the 2026 World Cup prediction markets; golf on Kalshi raises $231 million
Decentralized prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi continue to reflect the dynamics of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with today's odds pointing to a clear dominance of the US and Brazil national teams in their matches. Meanwhile, on Kalshi, excitement is building around the US Open golf tournament, with trading volume already exceeding $231 million.
USA — overwhelming favorite against Australia
In the Group D match against Australia, the US national team holds a commanding advantage. Both platforms estimate the probability of an American victory at 62% (the Polymarket contract trades at $0.61). A draw is priced at 22%, while an Australian success stands at just 18%. This confident lineup emerged after the Americans' strong start, crushing Paraguay 4-1. Australia, in turn, also began the tournament with a win, unexpectedly defeating Turkey 2-0, so both teams approach the head-to-head meeting with three points.
The market volume for this match on Kalshi has exceeded $15.9 million, reflecting enormous interest from fans. Victory in this game practically opens a direct path to the playoffs, making bets on this outcome particularly active.
Brazil and other matches of the day
Brazil looks like an even more clear favorite in the match against Haiti. Polymarket estimates the Brazilian victory at 89% with a contract price of $0.89, while Haiti accounts for only about 4%, and a draw at 8%. The market volume for this game is around $3.64 million. However, it is worth noting that the pentacampeões did not start the tournament perfectly, drawing with Morocco in the first round, so a confident win over Haiti is critical for them.
In the other matches of the day, the odds also favor the stronger teams. In the Scotland vs. Morocco pairing, the Moroccans are favorites with odds of $0.58, while in the Turkey vs. Paraguay match, the Turks are slightly ahead with a contract price of $0.47.
Golf heats up on Kalshi: US Open gathers $231 million
Special attention is due to the surge in betting on the Kalshi exchange around the US Open golf tournament. The winner market has amassed a colossal volume of around $231 million, making it one of the platform's largest sports markets. During the second round, American Wyndham Clark became the odds leader with a 20% probability of victory. He is followed by Briton Matt Fitzpatrick at 12% and Rory McIlroy at 8.4%.
The 126th US Open tournament takes place from June 18-21 at the Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in New York State, where 156 players are competing for the title. Such a high betting volume shows that prediction markets are increasingly covering not only football but also other sports.
Analytical commentary: The growth in volumes on sports prediction markets, especially for niche events like golf, indicates the maturity of the industry. We are witnessing a shift from purely speculative assets to real tools for fans, which in the long term could lead to a significant influx of liquidity into the decentralized finance sector.