World Cup 2026 Prediction Markets: USA and Brazil Lead with Confidence, While Golf on Kalshi Breaks Records with $231 Million
Decentralized betting platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi continue to show explosive growth in interest for sports events. Against the backdrop of the exciting opening matches of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the odds for favorites have noticeably strengthened, and trading volumes for key games are already in the tens of millions of dollars. At the same time, the US Open golf tournament amassed a colossal $231 million on Kalshi, confirming that prediction markets are extending far beyond traditional football.
USA vs. Australia: Battle for the Playoffs
In the Group D match, the US national team is a clear favorite against Australia. Both platforms—Polymarket and Kalshi—estimate the probability of an American victory at 62% with a contract price of $0.61. A draw is valued at 22%, and an Australian success at only 18%. This outlook formed after the USA's confident win over Paraguay (4:1) and Australia's unexpected but deserved victory over Turkey (2:0). Both teams approach the head-to-head match with three points, and the winner virtually guarantees a spot in the playoffs. The market volume for this match on Kalshi exceeded $15.9 million, reflecting the highest trader interest in this showdown.
Brazil and Other Favorites of the Day
Brazil looks like an even more clear favorite in the match against Haiti. Polymarket estimates the pentacampeões' chance of victory at 89% with a contract price of $0.89. Haiti accounts for only about 4%, and a draw at 8%. The market volume for this game was around $3.64 million. It is worth noting that Brazil started the tournament imperfectly, drawing with Morocco in the first round, so a confident win over Haiti is critically important for restoring their tournament standing.
In the other matches of the day, the odds also favor the stronger teams. In the pair Scotland vs. Morocco, the Moroccans are the favorites with a quote of $0.58, and in the match Turkey vs. Paraguay, the Turks are slightly ahead with a contract price of $0.47.
Golf Boom on Kalshi: US Open Raises $231 Million
Special attention deserves the surge in betting on the US Open golf tournament on the Kalshi exchange. The market for the winner amassed a colossal volume—around $231 million—making it one of the platform's largest sports markets. During the second round, American Wyndham Clark became the odds leader with a 20% probability of winning. He is followed by Briton Matt Fitzpatrick with 12% and Rory McIlroy with 8.4%.
The 126th US Open tournament takes place from June 18 to 21 at the Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in New York State, where 156 players compete for the title. Such a high betting volume shows that prediction markets are increasingly covering not only football but also other sports, attracting millions of dollars in liquidity.
My analysis: Sports prediction markets are not just entertainment but a full-fledged indicator of public sentiment and an effective tool for risk hedging. The fact that over $230 million has been raised for a single golf tournament speaks to the maturity of this sector. For crypto enthusiasts, this is a signal: decentralized betting platforms are becoming mainstream, and we are only seeing the beginning of this trend. Watch the dynamics—capital is flowing into predictions at an unprecedented speed.