World Cup 2026 Betting: USA and Brazil Dominate, While Golf on Kalshi Breaks Records with $231 Million
Prediction markets continue to gain momentum, and today's quotes for the 2026 FIFA World Cup matches clearly confirm this. The national teams of the USA and Brazil confidently lead the favorites' lists for their games, while simultaneously on the Kalshi platform, a real battle for the US Open golf title has unfolded, attracting massive liquidity volumes.
USA vs. Australia: Battle for the Playoffs
In the Group D match against Australia, the American team looks like the undisputed favorite. Polymarket and Kalshi are unanimous: the probability of a US victory is estimated at 62% (the contract is trading at $0.61), a draw at 22%, and an Australian success at only 18%. This scenario formed after the Americans' confident start, where they crushed Paraguay 4:1. Australia, in turn, also began the tournament with a win, unexpectedly defeating Turkey 2:0, so both teams approach the head-to-head meeting with three points. Victory in this match practically guarantees a spot in the playoffs, which fuels the excitement: the market volume on Kalshi has already exceeded $15.9 million.
Brazil and Other Matches of the Day
Brazil looks like an even more obvious favorite in the match against Haiti. Polymarket estimates the pentacampeões' chance of winning at 89% with a contract price of $0.89, while Haiti accounts for only about 4%, and a draw at 8%. The market volume for this game is around $3.64 million. Interestingly, Brazil did not start the tournament perfectly, drawing with Morocco in the first round, so a confident victory over Haiti is critical for them to regain their position. In the other matches of the day, the odds also favor the stronger teams: in the pair Scotland vs. Morocco, the Moroccans are the favorites with a quote of $0.58, and in the match Turkey vs. Paraguay, the Turks are slightly ahead with a contract price of $0.47.
Golf Boom on Kalshi: US Open Gathers $231 Million
Special attention should be paid to the surge in betting on the Kalshi exchange around the US Open golf tournament. The market for the winner has gathered a colossal volume of about $231 million, making it one of the platform's largest sports markets. During the second round, American Wyndham Clark became the leader in quotes with a 20% probability of winning. He is followed by Briton Matt Fitzpatrick with 12% and Rory McIlroy with 8.4%. The 126th US Open tournament takes place from June 18-21 at the Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in New York State, where 156 players are competing for the title. Such a high betting volume shows that prediction markets are increasingly covering not only football but also other sports.
Cryptalist Analysis: The growth in volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket is not just a trend but an indicator of the industry's maturity. We see how decentralized prediction markets are becoming a full-fledged alternative to traditional bookmakers, offering transparency and global access. $231 million on a single golf tournament is a signal: crypto markets are ready to absorb billions, and this is just the beginning.