Prediction markets break records: USA and Brazil dominate the 2026 World Cup, while golf on Kalshi raises $231 million
Sports prediction markets continue to gain momentum, and current data from Polymarket and Kalshi platforms paint a clear picture: the national teams of the USA and Brazil are the undisputed favorites in their matches at the 2026 World Cup. At the same time, the US Open golf tournament on Kalshi attracted a colossal $231 million, confirming the growing interest in alternative sports in this segment.
USA vs. Australia: Bets on the Group D Leader
In the Group D match against Australia, the American team looks like a confident leader. Both platforms — Polymarket and Kalshi — estimate the probability of a US victory at 62%. The probability of a draw is 22%, and Australia's success is only 18%. The contract for a US win on Polymarket is trading at $0.61.
These odds formed after a confident start by the Americans, who crushed Paraguay 4:1. Australia also began the tournament with a win, unexpectedly beating Turkey 2:0, so both teams approached the head-to-head match with three points. The market volume for this match on Kalshi exceeded $15.9 million, reflecting high fan interest. Winning the head-to-head match effectively opens the door to the playoffs, making bets on it particularly active.
Brazil and Other Matches of the Day
Brazil looks like an even more clear favorite in the match against Haiti. Polymarket estimates the probability of a Brazilian victory at 89% with a contract price of $0.89, while Haiti accounts for only about 4%, and a draw at 8%. The market volume for this game was about $3.64 million.
In the other matches of the day, the odds also favor the stronger teams. In the Scotland vs. Morocco pair, the Moroccans are the favorites with odds of $0.58, and in the Turkey vs. Paraguay match, the Turks are slightly ahead with a contract price of $0.47.
Brazil, however, did not start the tournament perfectly, drawing with Morocco in the first round. Therefore, a confident victory over Haiti is extremely important for the pentacampeões.
Golf Booms on Kalshi: US Open Raises $231 Million
Special attention deserves the surge in betting on the Kalshi exchange around the US Open golf tournament. The market for the winner collected a colossal volume — about $231 million, making it one of the platform's largest sports markets.
During the second round, American Wyndham Clark became the odds leader with a 20% probability of winning. He is followed by Briton Matt Fitzpatrick with 12% and Rory McIlroy with 8.4%.
The 126th US Open tournament takes place from June 18-21 at the Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in New York State, where 156 players compete for the title. Such a high volume of bets shows that prediction markets are increasingly covering not only football but also other sports.
My analysis: Current data confirms that prediction markets are becoming a full-fledged tool for evaluating sports events, competing with traditional bookmakers. The $231 million volume on the golf tournament is a signal that investors and traders are increasingly diversifying their portfolios, using sports contracts as an alternative asset class. I recommend monitoring the dynamics of these markets: they provide a more objective picture than polls or expert forecasts.