Bets on the 2026 World Cup and the golf boom: Polymarket and Kalshi record record volumes
Prediction markets are gaining momentum: the US and Brazil national teams have become clear favorites in their matches at the 2026 World Cup. Meanwhile, the Kalshi exchange has seen a surge of activity around the US Open golf tournament, attracting hundreds of millions of dollars.
Activity on Polymarket and Kalshi platforms demonstrates how rapidly prediction markets are evolving into a full-fledged tool for sports event analysis. Following the exciting opening matches, the odds for favorites have noticeably strengthened, with trading volumes reaching millions of dollars, indicating high audience engagement.
USA — Clear Favorite Against Australia
In the Group D match against Australia, the US national team is the clear favorite. Both Polymarket and Kalshi estimate the US win probability at 62%, while a draw is at 22%, and an Australian victory at just 18%. The contract for a US win on Polymarket is trading at $0.61. These odds emerged after the Americans' confident start, where they crushed Paraguay 4-1. Australia also began the tournament with a win, unexpectedly defeating Turkey 2-0, so both teams approach the head-to-head match with three points. The market volume for this match on Kalshi has exceeded $15.9 million, reflecting high fan interest. Winning this direct clash essentially opens the door to the playoffs, making bets on it particularly active.
Brazil and Other Matches of the Day
Brazil looks like an even more decisive favorite in its match against Haiti. Polymarket estimates the Brazilian win probability at 89% with a contract price of $0.89, while Haiti accounts for only about 4%, and a draw at 8%. The market volume for this game is around $3.64 million. In other matches of the day, the odds also favor the stronger teams. In the Scotland vs. Morocco pairing, the Moroccans are the favorites with odds of $0.58, while in the Turkey vs. Paraguay match, the Turks are slightly ahead with a contract price of $0.47. Brazil, however, did not start the tournament perfectly, drawing with Morocco in the first round. Therefore, a confident victory over Haiti is extremely important for the pentacampeões.
Golf Heats Up on Kalshi: US Open Raises $231 Million
Special attention is due to the surge in betting on the Kalshi exchange surrounding the US Open golf tournament. The market for the winner has amassed a colossal volume of around $231 million, making it one of the platform's largest sports markets. During the second round, American Wyndham Clark became the odds leader with a 20% win probability. He is followed by Briton Matt Fitzpatrick at 12% and Rory McIlroy at 8.4%. The 126th US Open tournament is taking place from June 18-21 at the Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in New York State, where 156 players are competing for the title. Such a high betting volume shows that prediction markets are increasingly covering not only football but also other sports.
My analysis: Prediction markets are becoming not just entertainment but a powerful indicator of public sentiment and sports analytics. The record $231 million on a golf tournament is a signal of the industry's maturity. Investors should pay attention to tokens associated with platforms like Polymarket, as volume growth directly correlates with their market capitalization.