Bitcoin is finding its bottom: while the crowd waits for a signal, the market is already turning around
The cryptocurrency market appears to be entering a decisive phase of the current cycle. My analysis of capital flows and macroeconomic indicators suggests that Bitcoin is forming a local bottom relative to the S&P 500 index. This is not an isolated event — we are observing a synchronized reaching of lows across several key levels.
Last year, Ethereum bottomed against Bitcoin, then a basket of altcoins reached a low relative to BTC this year. Now, the main asset is finding a bottom against the U.S. stock market. Such a sequence is a classic sign of the completion of the redistribution phase.
The old cycle peak has turned into support
The technical picture on monthly charts deserves special attention. Bitcoin's previous cycle peak has now transformed into a support level. The market is already testing the bottom, but most participants are still waiting for its formal confirmation. The psychological paradox is that the crowd is waiting not for the actual low, but for permission to act. While investors seek confirmation of a reversal, the market may already be passing the bottom.
Leverage at record levels
However, there is a factor that requires caution. Margin debt in the U.S. has surged — increasing by $112 billion over the past month, reaching a record $1.4 trillion. Since 2023, the volume of borrowed funds used for trading has more than doubled. This means investors are aggressively borrowing to buy assets, including cryptocurrencies. In the event of a sharp market reversal, such a level of debt increases the risk of forced sell-offs.
My professional view: We are at a point where fundamental bottom signals coincide with extreme leverage. This creates a unique dilemma: the market could either shoot sharply upward once the "crowd" finally gets permission to enter, or experience a final capitulation due to margin calls. In any case, current levels represent a zone of maximum interest for long-term investors.