Prediction markets: The Messi vs. Mbappé duel for the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot heats up
After a brilliant brace against Austria, Lionel Messi confidently took the lead in the race for the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot. Decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket immediately reacted to this success: the Argentine's probability of winning reached 34%, ahead of his main rival Kylian Mbappé, whose chances are estimated at 33%.
Monday braces: how the odds shifted
On Monday, June 22, both superstars scored braces. Messi secured Argentina's 2-0 victory over Austria, while Mbappé scored twice against Iraq in a match that ended in a 3-0 rout. Thus, Lionel has five goals in the tournament, and Kylian has four. These goals count toward the 2026 Golden Boot, which only considers goals from the current World Cup.
Messi, with five goals, became the sole leader: a hat-trick in the opening match against Algeria and a brace against Austria propelled him forward. Mbappé follows with four goals—braces against Senegal and Iraq. The goals on June 22 made World Cup history: Messi became the tournament's all-time top scorer with 18 goals, surpassing German Miroslav Klose. Mbappé that same night equaled Klose's career goals, taking second place on the all-time list.
Englishman Harry Kane and Norwegian Erling Haaland scored fewer goals after the first rounds, and their chances for the award have noticeably declined. The Golden Boot race has essentially become a duel between two former Paris Saint-Germain teammates.
What the bets on Polymarket and Kalshi show
On Polymarket, with a total betting volume of about $27.79 million, the leaderboard is extremely close: Messi at 34%, Mbappé at 33%, Kane at 15%, Haaland at 10%. After the last round, Messi's odds rose significantly, while Kane's and Haaland's chances dropped. On the Kalshi platform, with a turnover of about $8.21 million, the picture is slightly different: Messi and Mbappé are tied at 36%, with Kane holding third place at 12%. The percentage difference between platforms reflects different participant pools and liquidity.
On both platforms, the race for the award has narrowed to a showdown between the two forwards. As the playoffs approach, odds will shift sharply after each match, and the decisive factor will be how far Argentina and France advance.
Expert opinion: Prediction markets show high sensitivity to current results, but the factors of squad depth and schedule should not be overlooked. If one team exits earlier, its striker's chances for the Golden Boot will plummet, regardless of personal statistics.