Bitcoin veterans halt sales: Is the market preparing for a reversal?
Key signal for the market: long-term Bitcoin holders, known as OGs (veterans), have almost completely stopped taking profits. This could indicate a shift in market sentiment and preparation for a new phase of growth.
Record calm among OGs
On-chain data analysis shows that the 90-day moving average of spent coin volume among investors holding BTC for more than five years has dropped to 962. Such low levels were last seen in November 2024. This means that market veterans, who have weathered numerous cycles, now prefer to hold rather than sell their assets, despite the current price around $63,200 — a level that is their breakeven point.
Throughout the current market cycle, we have observed three strong waves of profit-taking by OGs: in May 2024 (average of 3,860 BTC), in February 2025 (3,200 BTC), and in September 2025 (2,360 BTC). However, the current decline in activity to 962 BTC is not just another downturn, but a return to levels that historically preceded consolidation or a resumption of the uptrend.
Technical context: meeting the Power Law
It is important to note that this on-chain calm coincides with a rare technical event. The price of Bitcoin has approached the lower boundary of the Power Law model for the first time in three years — a mathematical model describing the asset's long-term trajectory. Previously, touching this zone occurred exclusively during deep bear markets.
The current situation is unique: veterans refuse to sell at a level that is technically a historical support zone. This creates a strong barrier to further decline and simultaneously increases the price's dependence on short-term demand and trader positions in derivatives.
Analyst's conclusion
The cessation of selling by OGs is not just passive waiting, but an active signal of confidence. When the most experienced market participants refuse to take profits at breakeven levels and the price simultaneously tests historical support, the likelihood of a trend reversal increases significantly. In my opinion, the market is entering an accumulation phase, and any positive change in the macroeconomic backdrop could become a catalyst for a powerful upward move.